Model Predictions
| Model | Atlanta Hawks | Miami Heat | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 44.7% | 55.3% | - | ✗ |
| Bradley-Terry | 34.2% | 65.8% | - | ✗ |
| Margin | 27.3% | 72.7% | +5.4 | ✗ (9.4 off) |
| Pythagorean | 42.2% | 57.8% | - | ✗ |
Actual: Miami Heat -4 (89-93). Predictions use season-end ratings.
Atlanta Hawks
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joe Johnson * | 45 | 8-24 | 0-6 | 3-4 | 5 | 10 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 19 | 7 | - |
| Josh Smith * | 44 | 6-18 | 0-3 | 3-3 | 12 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 15 | 12 | - |
| Mike Bibby * | 36 | 5-11 | 4-10 | 1-2 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 15 | 8 | - |
| Jamal Crawford * | 31 | 8-15 | 2-6 | 1-2 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 19 | 10 | - |
| Maurice Evans * | 31 | 4-9 | 1-5 | 2-2 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 11 | 9 | - |
| Zaza Pachulia * | 22 | 2-6 | 0-0 | 0-1 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 3 | - |
| Al Horford * | 20 | 3-8 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 9 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 10 | - |
| Jason Collins * | 14 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 4 | - |
| Damien Wilkins * | 11 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 | - |
| Josh Powell * | 3 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | - |
| Jordan Crawford | 2 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | - |
Miami Heat
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dwyane Wade * | 45 | 8-20 | 0-4 | 11-12 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 27 | 12 | - |
| LeBron James * | 44 | 11-30 | 2-10 | 10-11 | 10 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 6 | 34 | 17 | - |
| Joel Anthony * | 43 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 16 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 19 | - |
| Mario Chalmers * | 39 | 4-8 | 2-6 | 0-0 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 10 | 7 | - |
| Eddie House * | 28 | 3-8 | 2-5 | 4-4 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 12 | 9 | - |
| James Jones * | 18 | 1-3 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 | - |
| Zydrunas Ilgauskas * | 12 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | - |
| Mike Miller * | 9 | 0-2 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -1 | - |
| Juwan Howard * | 9 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 1-2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | - |
| Carlos Arroyo * | 8 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | - |
| Erick Dampier * | 4 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | - |
* = starter