Model Predictions
| Model | Miami Heat | Denver Nuggets | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 21.3% | 78.7% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 43.5% | 56.5% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 38.6% | 61.4% | +2.6 | ✓ (25.4 off) |
| Pythagorean | 48.0% | 52.0% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Denver Nuggets +28 (130-102). Predictions use season-end ratings.
Miami Heat
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Miller * | 33 | 2-7 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 8 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 11 | - |
| Dwyane Wade * | 31 | 7-19 | 0-3 | 2-7 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 16 | 3 | - |
| Chris Bosh * | 30 | 9-17 | 0-0 | 6-6 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 24 | 13 | - |
| Mario Chalmers * | 28 | 5-10 | 4-7 | 0-0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 14 | 6 | - |
| Erick Dampier * | 25 | 2-3 | 0-0 | 0-1 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 7 | - |
| Carlos Arroyo * | 19 | 5-7 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 10 | 6 | - |
| Juwan Howard * | 17 | 3-8 | 0-0 | 1-2 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 6 | - |
| Eddie House * | 16 | 5-11 | 4-8 | 1-1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 15 | 6 | - |
| James Jones * | 14 | 2-4 | 2-4 | 0-0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 3 | - |
| Zydrunas Ilgauskas * | 13 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | - |
| Joel Anthony * | 8 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 0-1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 5 | - |
Denver Nuggets
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carmelo Anthony * | 29 | 8-17 | 1-3 | 4-6 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 21 | 13 | - |
| Arron Afflalo * | 27 | 4-8 | 3-4 | 3-5 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 14 | 15 | - |
| Chauncey Billups * | 26 | 2-6 | 0-1 | 2-2 | 1 | 13 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 14 | - |
| JR Smith * | 26 | 10-17 | 8-14 | 0-0 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 28 | 18 | - |
| Nene Hilario * | 25 | 6-7 | 0-0 | 5-5 | 9 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 17 | 19 | - |
| Ty Lawson * | 24 | 6-11 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 13 | 11 | - |
| Melvin Ely * | 22 | 4-7 | 0-0 | 2-2 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 10 | 8 | - |
| Al Harrington * | 21 | 4-9 | 2-6 | 0-0 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 10 | 8 | - |
| Kenyon Martin * | 17 | 3-5 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 10 | - |
| Gary Forbes * | 12 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 1-2 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 3 | - |
| Shelden Williams | 5 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | - |
* = starter