Model Predictions
| Model | Miami Heat | Milwaukee Bucks | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 75.9% | 24.1% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 74.2% | 25.8% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 70.3% | 29.7% | -4.7 | ✓ (1.3 off) |
| Pythagorean | 55.5% | 44.5% | - | ✓ |
| Efficiency | 71.9% | 28.1% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 74.2% | 25.8% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 74.2% | 25.8% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 60.7% | 39.3% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Milwaukee Bucks -6 (95-101). Predictions use season-end ratings.
Miami Heat
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LeBron James * | 45 | 8-23 | 1-4 | 9-11 | 10 | 5 | 6 | 1 | 5 | 26 | 20 | - |
| Dwyane Wade * | 43 | 4-19 | 0-1 | 6-7 | 7 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 14 | 9 | - |
| Carlos Arroyo * | 36 | 6-11 | 1-3 | 2-2 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 15 | 8 | - |
| Chris Bosh * | 36 | 6-16 | 0-0 | 4-4 | 12 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 16 | 11 | - |
| Zydrunas Ilgauskas * | 31 | 2-4 | 0-0 | 2-2 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 6 | 12 | - |
| Erick Dampier * | 21 | 2-3 | 0-0 | 0-2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 6 | - |
| Juwan Howard * | 16 | 2-5 | 0-0 | 3-3 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 6 | - |
| James Jones * | 16 | 2-3 | 2-2 | 0-1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 7 | - |
| Mario Chalmers * | 16 | 3-5 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 7 | 2 | - |
Milwaukee Bucks
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andrew Bogut * | 47 | 4-17 | 0-0 | 4-8 | 27 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 12 | 26 | - |
| Luc Mbah a Moute * | 41 | 5-7 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 10 | 11 | - |
| Chris Douglas-Roberts * | 41 | 12-19 | 2-3 | 4-6 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 30 | 22 | - |
| John Salmons * | 38 | 5-12 | 2-7 | 3-4 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 15 | 5 | - |
| Earl Boykins * | 27 | 5-11 | 0-2 | 4-4 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 14 | 4 | - |
| Keyon Dooling * | 25 | 1-4 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 4 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 6 | - |
| Ersan Ilyasova * | 23 | 3-8 | 1-4 | 2-2 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 9 | 11 | - |
| Jon Brockman * | 9 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | - |
| Larry Sanders * | 3 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - |
| Corey Maggette | 6 | 1-3 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -2 | - |
* = starter