Model Predictions
| Model | Houston Rockets | Denver Nuggets | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 34.4% | 65.6% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 34.3% | 65.7% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 26.8% | 73.2% | +5.5 | ✓ (1.5 off) |
| Pythagorean | 44.6% | 55.4% | - | ✓ |
| Efficiency | 39.0% | 61.0% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 39.6% | 60.4% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 39.6% | 60.4% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 38.0% | 62.0% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Denver Nuggets +7 (113-106). Predictions use season-end ratings.
Houston Rockets
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Luis Scola * | 32 | 10-19 | 0-0 | 4-4 | 7 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 24 | 13 | - |
| Kyle Lowry * | 31 | 5-12 | 4-7 | 7-10 | 7 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 21 | 23 | - |
| Brad Miller * | 30 | 4-8 | 2-3 | 0-0 | 11 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 10 | 20 | - |
| Shane Battier * | 29 | 2-8 | 1-5 | 1-2 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 6 | - |
| Kevin Martin * | 24 | 3-15 | 1-6 | 1-1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 8 | -6 | - |
| Courtney Lee * | 23 | 5-11 | 1-3 | 1-2 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12 | 4 | - |
| Chase Budinger * | 20 | 5-7 | 3-4 | 0-0 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 13 | 12 | - |
| Patrick Patterson * | 19 | 3-5 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 6 | 7 | - |
| Aaron Brooks * | 16 | 1-3 | 1-2 | 1-2 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 7 | - |
| Jordan Hill * | 12 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | - |
Denver Nuggets
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carmelo Anthony * | 40 | 10-25 | 0-0 | 13-14 | 11 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 33 | 22 | - |
| Arron Afflalo * | 39 | 5-7 | 2-2 | 3-3 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 15 | 16 | - |
| Nene Hilario * | 34 | 5-9 | 0-0 | 6-7 | 11 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 16 | 17 | - |
| Chauncey Billups * | 27 | 3-5 | 1-2 | 6-7 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 13 | 11 | - |
| Chris Andersen * | 22 | 2-5 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 8 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 10 | - |
| Kenyon Martin * | 21 | 5-8 | 0-0 | 1-3 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 11 | 14 | - |
| Ty Lawson * | 21 | 4-7 | 0-1 | 4-4 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 12 | 8 | - |
| JR Smith * | 20 | 1-8 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -1 | - |
| Shelden Williams * | 7 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | - |
| Gary Forbes * | 5 | 3-5 | 0-0 | 1-2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 5 | - |
* = starter