Model Predictions
| Model | Golden State Warriors | Miami Heat | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 57.4% | 42.6% | - | ✗ |
| Bradley-Terry | 48.6% | 51.4% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 48.6% | 51.4% | +0.3 | ✓ (6.7 off) |
| Pythagorean | 49.0% | 51.0% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Miami Heat +7 (114-107). Predictions use season-end ratings.
Golden State Warriors
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Monta Ellis * | 46 | 7-16 | 3-5 | 8-10 | 3 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 25 | 15 | - |
| Dorell Wright * | 39 | 12-21 | 6-13 | 0-0 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 30 | 14 | - |
| David Lee * | 36 | 6-14 | 0-0 | 1-2 | 12 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 13 | 13 | - |
| Stephen Curry * | 35 | 7-12 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 2 | 6 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 15 | 13 | - |
| Vladimir Radmanovic * | 21 | 2-7 | 1-3 | 1-2 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 4 | - |
| Ekpe Udoh * | 17 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 2-2 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 7 | - |
| Acie Law * | 14 | 3-6 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 7 | 3 | - |
| Lou Amundson * | 13 | 2-4 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | - |
| Rodney Carney * | 7 | 1-4 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | - |
| Reggie Williams | 7 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - |
Miami Heat
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LeBron James * | 41 | 7-15 | 0-3 | 11-17 | 7 | 10 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 25 | 26 | - |
| Dwyane Wade * | 39 | 7-18 | 0-2 | 11-16 | 6 | 8 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 25 | 24 | - |
| Chris Bosh * | 39 | 6-10 | 0-0 | 8-9 | 11 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 20 | 23 | - |
| Carlos Arroyo * | 26 | 4-7 | 3-4 | 0-0 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 11 | 7 | - |
| Joel Anthony * | 22 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 4-4 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 9 | - |
| James Jones * | 21 | 4-7 | 4-7 | 1-1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13 | 6 | - |
| Mario Chalmers * | 21 | 3-7 | 2-5 | 0-0 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 5 | - |
| Zydrunas Ilgauskas * | 16 | 2-3 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 7 | - |
| Juwan Howard * | 10 | 2-3 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 2 | - |
* = starter