Model Predictions
| Model | Miami Heat | Houston Rockets | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 36.1% | 63.9% | - | ✗ |
| Bradley-Terry | 43.5% | 56.5% | - | ✗ |
| Margin | 37.7% | 62.3% | +2.8 | ✗ (8.8 off) |
| Pythagorean | 47.5% | 52.5% | - | ✗ |
Actual: Houston Rockets -6 (119-125). Predictions use season-end ratings.
Miami Heat
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LeBron James * | 39 | 8-15 | 0-4 | 4-4 | 6 | 9 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 20 | 18 | - |
| Chris Bosh * | 38 | 8-14 | 0-1 | 5-6 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 21 | 10 | - |
| Dwyane Wade * | 38 | 17-24 | 1-3 | 10-10 | 7 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 6 | 45 | 25 | - |
| Mario Chalmers * | 23 | 1-2 | 1-2 | 5-5 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 13 | - |
| Carlos Arroyo * | 23 | 3-5 | 2-2 | 3-3 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 11 | 9 | - |
| Joel Anthony * | 22 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 4-6 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 13 | - |
| Zydrunas Ilgauskas * | 18 | 3-7 | 0-0 | 1-1 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 7 | 7 | - |
| James Jones * | 12 | 1-3 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 5 | - |
| Erick Dampier * | 7 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | - |
| Mike Miller * | 6 | 1-2 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | - |
| Juwan Howard | 9 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 2-2 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 5 | - |
Houston Rockets
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shane Battier * | 33 | 2-9 | 1-6 | 0-0 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 4 | - |
| Kevin Martin * | 31 | 7-16 | 1-5 | 6-10 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 21 | 8 | - |
| Luis Scola * | 31 | 10-20 | 0-1 | 2-2 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 22 | 7 | - |
| Aaron Brooks * | 26 | 6-13 | 0-4 | 8-8 | 2 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 20 | 18 | - |
| Chuck Hayes * | 24 | 3-6 | 0-0 | 7-8 | 8 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 13 | 19 | - |
| Kyle Lowry * | 23 | 3-6 | 3-4 | 2-4 | 7 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 11 | 19 | - |
| Jordan Hill * | 20 | 3-7 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 5 | - |
| Brad Miller * | 16 | 1-5 | 1-3 | 5-6 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 10 | - |
| Courtney Lee * | 15 | 0-3 | 0-1 | 2-2 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 5 | - |
| Chase Budinger * | 15 | 4-8 | 3-3 | 0-0 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11 | 9 | - |
* = starter