Model Predictions
| Model | Miami Heat | Los Angeles Lakers | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 68.0% | 32.0% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 46.6% | 53.4% | - | ✗ |
| Margin | 41.8% | 58.2% | +1.8 | ✗ (17.8 off) |
| Pythagorean | 48.2% | 51.8% | - | ✗ |
| Efficiency | 51.6% | 48.4% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 51.5% | 48.5% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 51.4% | 48.6% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 46.1% | 53.9% | - | ✗ |
Actual: Los Angeles Lakers -16 (80-96). Predictions use season-end ratings.
Miami Heat
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LeBron James * | 38 | 8-14 | 5-6 | 6-6 | 11 | 10 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 27 | 37 | - |
| Chris Bosh * | 38 | 11-17 | 0-0 | 2-3 | 13 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 24 | 23 | - |
| Dwyane Wade * | 36 | 6-17 | 0-1 | 6-6 | 5 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 18 | 11 | - |
| Mario Chalmers * | 29 | 4-11 | 3-9 | 2-3 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 13 | 6 | - |
| Zydrunas Ilgauskas * | 23 | 3-5 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 5 | - |
| Erick Dampier * | 21 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 3 | - |
| James Jones * | 20 | 1-6 | 1-6 | 0-0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | - |
| Carlos Arroyo * | 18 | 1-5 | 0-3 | 0-0 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | - |
| Juwan Howard | 9 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 1-2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | - |
| Joel Anthony | 3 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | - |
| Mike Miller | 1 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | - |
Los Angeles Lakers
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kobe Bryant * | 40 | 6-16 | 1-3 | 4-5 | 6 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 17 | 11 | - |
| Lamar Odom * | 39 | 6-12 | 0-2 | 2-6 | 9 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 14 | 12 | - |
| Pau Gasol * | 36 | 8-17 | 0-0 | 1-1 | 8 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 17 | 10 | - |
| Derek Fisher * | 24 | 2-3 | 2-3 | 0-0 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 9 | - |
| Shannon Brown * | 23 | 3-9 | 1-3 | 3-3 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 10 | 5 | - |
| Metta World Peace * | 21 | 3-8 | 2-2 | 0-0 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 8 | 8 | - |
| Steve Blake * | 19 | 0-5 | 0-5 | 0-0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -4 | - |
| Andrew Bynum * | 17 | 3-5 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 7 | - |
| Matt Barnes | 15 | 1-4 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | - |
| Luke Walton | 2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - |
* = starter