Model Predictions
| Model | Miami Heat | Phoenix Suns | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 79.1% | 20.9% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 66.7% | 33.3% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 67.6% | 32.4% | -4.0 | ✓ (8.0 off) |
| Pythagorean | 55.9% | 44.1% | - | ✓ |
| Efficiency | 73.0% | 27.0% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 71.2% | 28.8% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 71.3% | 28.7% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 59.2% | 40.8% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Phoenix Suns -12 (83-95). Predictions use season-end ratings.
Miami Heat
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LeBron James * | 37 | 13-22 | 2-5 | 8-8 | 6 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 5 | 36 | 22 | - |
| Chris Bosh * | 37 | 9-17 | 0-1 | 5-5 | 11 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 23 | 21 | - |
| James Jones * | 34 | 3-9 | 1-5 | 0-0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 2 | - |
| Mario Chalmers * | 26 | 5-11 | 1-4 | 0-0 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 11 | 5 | - |
| Carlos Arroyo * | 25 | 5-12 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 11 | 2 | - |
| Joel Anthony * | 23 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | - |
| Mike Miller * | 19 | 0-3 | 0-0 | 1-2 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | - |
| Erick Dampier * | 15 | 1-5 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 6 | - |
| Juwan Howard * | 13 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 2-2 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 4 | - |
| Zydrunas Ilgauskas * | 5 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -1 | - |
Phoenix Suns
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jared Dudley * | 41 | 11-16 | 7-10 | 4-6 | 12 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 33 | 30 | - |
| Grant Hill * | 35 | 4-12 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 8 | 2 | - |
| Channing Frye * | 35 | 5-13 | 3-7 | 1-2 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 14 | 10 | - |
| Steve Nash * | 31 | 1-4 | 0-2 | 2-2 | 4 | 18 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 4 | 17 | - |
| Robin Lopez * | 26 | 4-7 | 0-0 | 4-5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 12 | 7 | - |
| Marcin Gortat * | 17 | 2-5 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 2 | - |
| Goran Dragic * | 16 | 0-4 | 0-2 | 1-2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -1 | - |
| Mickael Pietrus * | 12 | 1-6 | 0-4 | 0-0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | -4 | - |
| Hakim Warrick * | 12 | 1-5 | 0-0 | 1-2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | -1 | - |
| Josh Childress * | 10 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | - |
* = starter