Model Predictions
| Model | Dallas Mavericks | Miami Heat | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 42.6% | 57.4% | - | ✗ |
| Bradley-Terry | 35.9% | 64.1% | - | ✗ |
| Margin | 35.1% | 64.9% | +3.4 | ✗ (5.4 off) |
| Pythagorean | 44.6% | 55.4% | - | ✗ |
Actual: Miami Heat -2 (96-98). Predictions use season-end ratings.
Dallas Mavericks
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jason Kidd * | 38 | 3-5 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 4 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 7 | 10 | - |
| Dirk Nowitzki * | 38 | 8-21 | 0-4 | 10-10 | 9 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 26 | 17 | - |
| Tyson Chandler * | 30 | 3-3 | 0-0 | 2-2 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 13 | - |
| Jason Terry * | 30 | 6-15 | 3-6 | 4-4 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 19 | 6 | - |
| Caron Butler * | 28 | 4-9 | 1-2 | 4-5 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 13 | 10 | - |
| Shawn Marion * | 28 | 2-7 | 0-0 | 3-4 | 13 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 7 | 14 | - |
| Brendan Haywood * | 17 | 2-2 | 0-0 | 0-1 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 6 | - |
| DeShawn Stevenson * | 14 | 3-8 | 2-5 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 1 | - |
| J.J. Barea * | 11 | 2-4 | 1-2 | 1-2 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 8 | - |
Miami Heat
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dwyane Wade * | 39 | 8-17 | 3-7 | 3-6 | 4 | 7 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 22 | 20 | - |
| LeBron James * | 36 | 6-17 | 2-4 | 5-7 | 10 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 19 | 14 | - |
| Chris Bosh * | 35 | 8-15 | 0-1 | 3-5 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 19 | 12 | - |
| Mario Chalmers * | 29 | 3-10 | 3-7 | 4-4 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 13 | 10 | - |
| Joel Anthony * | 28 | 2-2 | 0-0 | 1-2 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 9 | - |
| James Jones * | 18 | 3-7 | 3-7 | 1-1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 10 | 5 | - |
| Zydrunas Ilgauskas * | 18 | 4-8 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 8 | 5 | - |
| Carlos Arroyo * | 18 | 0-2 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | -4 | - |
| Juwan Howard * | 12 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | - |
| Mike Miller | 3 | 0-4 | 0-4 | 0-0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - |
* = starter