Model Predictions
| Model | Miami Heat | Golden State Warriors | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 27.1% | 72.9% | - | ✗ |
| Bradley-Terry | 37.3% | 62.7% | - | ✗ |
| Margin | 29.9% | 70.1% | +4.7 | ✗ (26.7 off) |
| Pythagorean | 45.0% | 55.0% | - | ✗ |
Actual: Golden State Warriors -22 (84-106). Predictions use season-end ratings.
Miami Heat
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dwyane Wade * | 34 | 12-20 | 0-1 | 10-13 | 9 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 34 | 27 | - |
| Chris Bosh * | 33 | 7-14 | 0-0 | 2-2 | 7 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 16 | 16 | - |
| LeBron James * | 30 | 10-18 | 3-4 | 2-3 | 7 | 9 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 25 | 21 | - |
| Mario Chalmers * | 28 | 2-4 | 2-3 | 0-0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 6 | 4 | - |
| James Jones * | 27 | 3-5 | 3-5 | 0-0 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 9 | 12 | - |
| Zydrunas Ilgauskas * | 20 | 3-4 | 0-0 | 1-3 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 7 | 9 | - |
| Carlos Arroyo * | 18 | 4-4 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 10 | - |
| Erick Dampier * | 18 | 0-6 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 3 | - |
| Joel Anthony | 12 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | - |
| Juwan Howard | 11 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | - |
| Eddie House | 4 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | - |
Golden State Warriors
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Monta Ellis * | 42 | 8-18 | 2-7 | 2-4 | 3 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 20 | 11 | - |
| Dorell Wright * | 41 | 4-15 | 4-9 | 0-0 | 10 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 12 | 11 | - |
| Reggie Williams * | 37 | 4-11 | 1-4 | 4-5 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 13 | 7 | - |
| David Lee * | 31 | 6-14 | 0-0 | 1-2 | 8 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 13 | 10 | - |
| Andris Biedrins * | 24 | 1-5 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | - |
| Lou Amundson * | 19 | 2-5 | 0-0 | 4-6 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 8 | 7 | - |
| Acie Law * | 18 | 0-4 | 0-2 | 3-4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 | - |
| Vladimir Radmanovic * | 10 | 3-5 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 3 | - |
| Dan Gadzuric | 7 | 2-3 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 6 | - |
| Ekpe Udoh | 3 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | - |
| Jeremy Lin | 3 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | - |
* = starter