Model Predictions
| Model | Atlanta Hawks | Miami Heat | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 44.7% | 55.3% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 34.2% | 65.8% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 27.3% | 72.7% | +5.4 | ✓ (6.6 off) |
| Pythagorean | 42.2% | 57.8% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Miami Heat +12 (89-77). Predictions use season-end ratings.
Atlanta Hawks
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Smith * | 34 | 4-12 | 2-2 | 1-2 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 11 | 2 | - |
| Marvin Williams * | 31 | 2-9 | 1-4 | 0-0 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 2 | - |
| Mike Bibby * | 31 | 4-10 | 2-4 | 0-0 | 5 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 10 | 9 | - |
| Jamal Crawford * | 30 | 6-16 | 0-5 | 0-0 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 12 | 0 | - |
| Al Horford * | 30 | 10-11 | 0-0 | 2-4 | 9 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 22 | 20 | - |
| Maurice Evans * | 25 | 1-6 | 0-2 | 2-2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | - |
| Josh Powell * | 21 | 5-10 | 0-0 | 2-2 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 12 | 6 | - |
| Damien Wilkins * | 13 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | - |
| Jeff Teague * | 10 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | - |
| Zaza Pachulia * | 5 | 0-3 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -2 | - |
| Jason Collins | 4 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1-2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | - |
Miami Heat
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dwyane Wade * | 39 | 11-18 | 0-1 | 4-6 | 10 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 26 | 23 | - |
| Chris Bosh * | 39 | 12-22 | 0-0 | 3-4 | 10 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 27 | 14 | - |
| LeBron James * | 37 | 5-11 | 1-1 | 11-13 | 7 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 22 | 22 | - |
| Mario Chalmers * | 26 | 4-10 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 9 | 8 | - |
| Carlos Arroyo * | 21 | 1-4 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | - |
| Joel Anthony * | 21 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 6 | - |
| James Jones * | 18 | 1-2 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 4 | - |
| Zydrunas Ilgauskas * | 16 | 0-4 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -1 | - |
| Erick Dampier | 11 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | - |
| Juwan Howard | 6 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | - |
* = starter