Model Predictions
| Model | Miami Heat | Dallas Mavericks | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 40.3% | 59.7% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 50.1% | 49.9% | - | ✗ |
| Margin | 42.8% | 57.2% | +1.6 | ✓ (9.4 off) |
| Pythagorean | 49.4% | 50.6% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Dallas Mavericks +11 (106-95). Predictions use season-end ratings.
Miami Heat
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dwyane Wade * | 41 | 8-16 | 0-1 | 6-11 | 9 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 7 | 22 | 15 | - |
| Chris Bosh * | 37 | 9-18 | 0-1 | 4-4 | 8 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 22 | 15 | - |
| LeBron James * | 36 | 5-19 | 0-4 | 13-15 | 8 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 23 | 12 | - |
| Joel Anthony * | 29 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 5 | - |
| Mario Chalmers * | 20 | 2-4 | 2-3 | 2-2 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 10 | - |
| Carlos Arroyo * | 20 | 3-7 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 2 | - |
| James Jones * | 17 | 3-5 | 2-4 | 1-1 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 9 | - |
| Zydrunas Ilgauskas * | 10 | 0-3 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | - |
| Eddie House * | 9 | 1-2 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | - |
| Erick Dampier * | 8 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | - |
| Juwan Howard | 8 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2-2 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 6 | - |
Dallas Mavericks
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jason Kidd * | 37 | 1-5 | 1-3 | 2-2 | 8 | 13 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 21 | - |
| Caron Butler * | 37 | 9-15 | 3-3 | 2-2 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 23 | 12 | - |
| Tyson Chandler * | 36 | 6-10 | 0-0 | 2-4 | 17 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 14 | 24 | - |
| Dirk Nowitzki * | 34 | 9-23 | 1-5 | 3-3 | 6 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 22 | 10 | - |
| Jason Terry * | 29 | 3-12 | 1-3 | 5-6 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 12 | 4 | - |
| Shawn Marion * | 24 | 6-12 | 0-0 | 2-2 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 14 | 7 | - |
| DeShawn Stevenson * | 15 | 1-3 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 4 | - |
| J.J. Barea * | 14 | 5-7 | 0-0 | 3-3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 13 | 7 | - |
| Brendan Haywood * | 7 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | - |
| Ian Mahinmi * | 3 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -1 | - |
| Brian Cardinal | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - |
* = starter