Model Predictions
| Model | Boston Celtics | Miami Heat | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 14.6% | 85.4% | - | ✗ |
| Bradley-Terry | 37.3% | 62.7% | - | ✗ |
| Margin | 28.4% | 71.6% | +5.1 | ✗ (10.1 off) |
| Pythagorean | 45.7% | 54.3% | - | ✗ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 39.6% | 60.4% | - | ✗ |
| Log Adjusted | 39.6% | 60.4% | - | ✗ |
| Points Off/Def | 39.1% | 60.9% | - | ✗ |
Actual: Miami Heat -5 (107-112). Predictions use season-end ratings.
Boston Celtics
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ray Allen * | 41 | 13-23 | 7-9 | 2-2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 35 | 11 | - |
| Rajon Rondo * | 40 | 3-8 | 0-0 | 2-4 | 3 | 16 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 8 | 18 | - |
| Kevin Garnett * | 37 | 6-8 | 0-0 | 4-5 | 13 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 16 | 24 | - |
| Paul Pierce * | 35 | 10-16 | 1-4 | 4-4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 25 | 9 | - |
| Glen Davis * | 28 | 3-7 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 7 | - |
| Shaquille O'Neal * | 21 | 1-4 | 0-0 | 3-5 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 8 | - |
| Marquis Daniels * | 16 | 1-4 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | - |
| Nate Robinson * | 11 | 5-7 | 1-3 | 1-2 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12 | 8 | - |
| Semih Erden * | 8 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 1-3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | - |
Miami Heat
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LeBron James * | 44 | 9-21 | 0-5 | 17-22 | 10 | 9 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 35 | 32 | - |
| Dwyane Wade * | 40 | 2-12 | 0-5 | 4-6 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 8 | -5 | - |
| Chris Bosh * | 35 | 6-10 | 0-0 | 3-4 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 15 | 15 | - |
| Udonis Haslem * | 32 | 9-10 | 0-0 | 3-4 | 10 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 21 | 23 | - |
| Zydrunas Ilgauskas * | 19 | 3-4 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 8 | - |
| Eddie House * | 18 | 4-6 | 2-2 | 3-3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 13 | 7 | - |
| James Jones * | 18 | 1-3 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 2 | - |
| Carlos Arroyo * | 10 | 2-4 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | - |
| Joel Anthony * | 7 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - |
| Jerry Stackhouse * | 7 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 2-2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | - |
| Mario Chalmers | 4 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - |
* = starter