Model Predictions
| Model | San Antonio Spurs | Miami Heat | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Margin | 46.0% | 54.0% | +0.9 | ✗ (12.9 off) |
| Pythagorean | 48.5% | 51.5% | - | ✗ |
Actual: Miami Heat -12 (76-88). Predictions use season-end ratings.
San Antonio Spurs
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| George Hill * | 40 | 7-12 | 2-3 | 0-1 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 16 | 9 | - |
| Richard Jefferson * | 38 | 5-8 | 1-1 | 4-4 | 8 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 15 | 18 | - |
| Manu Ginobili * | 35 | 7-14 | 2-5 | 6-6 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 22 | 13 | - |
| Tim Duncan * | 31 | 5-15 | 0-1 | 2-2 | 11 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 12 | 8 | - |
| Antonio McDyess * | 29 | 4-9 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 7 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 8 | 6 | - |
| Keith Bogans * | 24 | 3-7 | 2-4 | 0-0 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 10 | - |
| DeJuan Blair * | 14 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | - |
| Matt Bonner * | 12 | 1-4 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | -3 | - |
| Roger Mason Jr. * | 5 | 1-3 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | - |
| Malik Hairston | 2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - |
| Cedric Jackson | 2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | - |
| Ian Mahinmi | 2 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | - |
Miami Heat
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dwyane Wade * | 42 | 11-26 | 1-4 | 5-8 | 3 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 28 | 9 | - |
| Carlos Arroyo * | 30 | 3-5 | 0-0 | 2-2 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 8 | - |
| Jermaine O'Neal * | 26 | 6-11 | 0-0 | 1-2 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 13 | 10 | - |
| Udonis Haslem * | 25 | 4-9 | 0-0 | 2-3 | 12 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 10 | 13 | - |
| Mario Chalmers * | 22 | 0-4 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | -4 | - |
| Joel Anthony * | 21 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1-2 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 7 | - |
| Quentin Richardson * | 19 | 0-3 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | - |
| Michael Beasley * | 18 | 3-10 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 1 | - |
| Dorell Wright * | 14 | 1-4 | 0-2 | 2-2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 3 | - |
| James Jones * | 14 | 2-5 | 2-5 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 1 | - |
| Jamaal Magloire | 3 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -2 | - |
* = starter