Model Predictions
| Model | Golden State Warriors | Miami Heat | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 57.3% | 42.7% | - | ✗ |
| Margin | 48.6% | 51.4% | +0.3 | ✓ (3.7 off) |
| Pythagorean | 49.1% | 50.9% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Miami Heat +4 (110-106). Predictions use season-end ratings.
Golden State Warriors
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stephen Curry * | 43 | 7-17 | 3-8 | 1-1 | 2 | 8 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 18 | 10 | - |
| Anthony Morrow * | 40 | 10-22 | 2-10 | 2-3 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 24 | 7 | - |
| C.J. Watson * | 40 | 9-15 | 1-4 | 1-2 | 2 | 0 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 20 | 12 | - |
| Anthony Tolliver * | 31 | 3-8 | 1-4 | 3-4 | 8 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 10 | 12 | - |
| Ronny Turiaf * | 28 | 7-8 | 0-0 | 1-5 | 7 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 15 | 17 | - |
| Reggie Williams * | 19 | 4-7 | 2-2 | 0-0 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 10 | 12 | - |
| Chris Hunter * | 19 | 4-6 | 0-0 | 1-2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 7 | - |
| Devean George * | 16 | 0-3 | 0-3 | 0-0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | - |
Miami Heat
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jermaine O'Neal * | 38 | 4-10 | 0-0 | 6-9 | 12 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 14 | 16 | - |
| Dwyane Wade * | 36 | 15-23 | 0-2 | 5-8 | 6 | 12 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 35 | 31 | - |
| Quentin Richardson * | 35 | 6-8 | 2-3 | 1-2 | 7 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 15 | 15 | - |
| Carlos Arroyo * | 33 | 6-12 | 0-2 | 2-2 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 14 | 14 | - |
| Udonis Haslem * | 26 | 2-7 | 0-0 | 2-2 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 8 | - |
| Michael Beasley * | 21 | 6-14 | 1-2 | 2-4 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 15 | 5 | - |
| Mario Chalmers * | 17 | 2-4 | 2-4 | 1-2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 7 | 3 | - |
| Dorell Wright * | 14 | 1-5 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | - |
| Rafer Alston * | 6 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | -3 | - |
| Joel Anthony | 9 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2-2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 4 | - |
* = starter