Model Predictions
| Model | Miami Heat | Denver Nuggets | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 21.3% | 78.7% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 38.5% | 61.5% | +2.6 | ✓ (15.4 off) |
| Pythagorean | 48.0% | 52.0% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Denver Nuggets +18 (114-96). Predictions use season-end ratings.
Miami Heat
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Beasley * | 35 | 7-19 | 0-2 | 3-4 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 17 | 4 | - |
| Dwyane Wade * | 34 | 8-20 | 0-3 | 9-13 | 10 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 25 | 16 | - |
| Quentin Richardson * | 30 | 1-4 | 1-3 | 0-1 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 7 | - |
| Jermaine O'Neal * | 25 | 4-8 | 0-0 | 1-2 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 9 | 7 | - |
| Udonis Haslem * | 21 | 1-4 | 0-0 | 3-4 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 7 | - |
| Dorell Wright * | 19 | 3-5 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 8 | - |
| Mario Chalmers * | 17 | 3-6 | 0-2 | 1-2 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 6 | - |
| Carlos Arroyo * | 16 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 2-2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 5 | - |
| James Jones * | 15 | 2-6 | 2-4 | 0-1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 2 | - |
| Joel Anthony * | 6 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 1-2 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 5 | - |
| Jamaal Magloire | 8 | 2-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 6 | - |
| Daequan Cook | 8 | 2-4 | 2-2 | 0-0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 3 | - |
Denver Nuggets
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carmelo Anthony * | 33 | 6-17 | 2-4 | 8-9 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 22 | 6 | - |
| JR Smith * | 29 | 5-11 | 3-6 | 3-6 | 4 | 6 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 16 | 14 | - |
| Nene Hilario * | 27 | 6-13 | 0-0 | 3-4 | 8 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 15 | 16 | - |
| Kenyon Martin * | 27 | 4-8 | 0-0 | 4-5 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 12 | 11 | - |
| Chris Andersen * | 27 | 3-3 | 0-0 | 3-4 | 10 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 9 | 21 | - |
| Chauncey Billups * | 26 | 1-5 | 1-3 | 10-11 | 3 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13 | 18 | - |
| Arron Afflalo * | 23 | 7-9 | 3-3 | 0-0 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 17 | 12 | - |
| Ty Lawson * | 21 | 2-4 | 0-0 | 2-2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 2 | - |
| Joey Graham | 10 | 1-4 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -1 | - |
| Malik Allen | 8 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - |
| Johan Petro | 4 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 0-2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | - |
* = starter