Model Predictions
| Model | Miami Heat | Atlanta Hawks | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 46.5% | 53.5% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 42.8% | 57.2% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 35.4% | 64.6% | +3.3 | ✓ (1.3 off) |
| Pythagorean | 47.5% | 52.5% | - | ✓ |
| Efficiency | 48.4% | 51.6% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 45.6% | 54.4% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 45.7% | 54.3% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 43.4% | 56.6% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Atlanta Hawks +2 (81-79). Predictions use season-end ratings.
Miami Heat
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Daequan Cook * | 35 | 3-12 | 1-7 | 0-0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 7 | -5 | - |
| Yakhouba Diawara * | 30 | 1-6 | 0-4 | 0-0 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | - |
| Chris Quinn * | 28 | 0-9 | 0-4 | 0-2 | 1 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 0 | -3 | - |
| Joel Anthony * | 27 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 1-4 | 9 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 17 | - |
| Dorell Wright * | 24 | 3-6 | 0-0 | 1-2 | 8 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 7 | 7 | - |
| Michael Beasley * | 24 | 9-15 | 1-3 | 4-4 | 13 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 23 | 21 | - |
| James Jones * | 23 | 3-10 | 2-6 | 2-2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 10 | 2 | - |
| Jamaal Magloire * | 20 | 3-4 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 6 | - |
| Mario Chalmers * | 19 | 6-10 | 3-5 | 0-0 | 0 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 15 | 13 | - |
| Mark Blount | 6 | 2-5 | 2-4 | 0-0 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 6 | - |
Atlanta Hawks
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mario West * | 39 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 1-2 | 7 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 10 | - |
| Flip Murray * | 36 | 5-20 | 1-3 | 6-8 | 2 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 17 | 5 | - |
| Solomon Jones * | 30 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 2-4 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 8 | - |
| Othello Hunter * | 23 | 4-6 | 0-0 | 0-1 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 10 | - |
| Al Horford * | 18 | 4-8 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 8 | 3 | - |
| Marvin Williams * | 15 | 4-4 | 1-1 | 4-4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 13 | 13 | - |
| Joe Johnson * | 14 | 4-7 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 9 | 5 | - |
| Josh Smith * | 12 | 3-4 | 0-1 | 2-3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 5 | - |
| Mike Bibby * | 12 | 2-5 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 2 | - |
| Randolph Morris * | 8 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 6 | - |
| Speedy Claxton * | 7 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 1-2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | - |
| Thomas Gardner | 21 | 1-7 | 0-2 | 1-2 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | - |
* = starter