Model Predictions
| Model | Phoenix Suns | Miami Heat | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 52.5% | 47.5% | - | ✗ |
| Bradley-Terry | 42.9% | 57.1% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 37.5% | 62.5% | +2.8 | ✓ (3.2 off) |
| Pythagorean | 48.5% | 51.5% | - | ✓ |
| Efficiency | 51.5% | 48.5% | - | ✗ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 48.6% | 51.4% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 48.6% | 51.4% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 44.5% | 55.5% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Miami Heat +6 (135-129). Predictions use season-end ratings.
Phoenix Suns
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Barnes * | 39 | 6-10 | 5-8 | 2-2 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 19 | 11 | - |
| Jason Richardson * | 39 | 8-16 | 3-8 | 3-3 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 22 | 11 | - |
| Steve Nash * | 37 | 12-17 | 2-3 | 3-4 | 5 | 10 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 29 | 25 | - |
| Grant Hill * | 32 | 5-13 | 0-1 | 3-6 | 6 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 13 | 8 | - |
| Shaquille O'Neal * | 30 | 8-13 | 0-0 | 6-9 | 8 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 22 | 21 | - |
| Leandro Barbosa * | 30 | 3-10 | 2-6 | 1-1 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 9 | 4 | - |
| Jared Dudley * | 16 | 3-4 | 2-2 | 0-2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 8 | 4 | - |
| Lou Amundson * | 14 | 3-3 | 0-0 | 1-2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 7 | 4 | - |
Miami Heat
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dwyane Wade * | 38 | 13-21 | 2-3 | 7-9 | 6 | 16 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 35 | 37 | - |
| Daequan Cook * | 36 | 9-14 | 6-8 | 3-4 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 27 | 21 | - |
| Mario Chalmers * | 32 | 5-9 | 2-5 | 2-2 | 5 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 14 | 17 | - |
| Jamario Moon * | 32 | 5-9 | 2-4 | 3-3 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 15 | 12 | - |
| Udonis Haslem * | 32 | 4-5 | 0-0 | 2-2 | 7 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 10 | 13 | - |
| Michael Beasley * | 26 | 10-16 | 1-1 | 7-7 | 9 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 28 | 23 | - |
| Jermaine O'Neal * | 22 | 2-7 | 0-0 | 2-2 | 2 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 6 | 4 | - |
| Joel Anthony * | 10 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | - |
| James Jones * | 7 | 0-3 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -2 | - |
* = starter