Model Predictions
| Model | Indiana Pacers | San Antonio Spurs | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 39.6% | 60.4% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 26.8% | 73.2% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 23.3% | 76.7% | +6.6 | ✓ (11.4 off) |
| Pythagorean | 41.6% | 58.4% | - | ✓ |
| Efficiency | 31.4% | 68.6% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 35.2% | 64.8% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 35.2% | 64.8% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 36.4% | 63.6% | - | ✓ |
Actual: San Antonio Spurs +18 (99-81). Predictions use season-end ratings.
Indiana Pacers
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Danny Granger * | 33 | 5-15 | 0-0 | 7-8 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 17 | 2 | - |
| Troy Murphy * | 32 | 2-8 | 2-5 | 0-0 | 10 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 9 | - |
| T.J. Ford * | 27 | 4-14 | 1-3 | 1-1 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 10 | 1 | - |
| Jeff Foster * | 26 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 5 | - |
| Brandon Rush * | 26 | 2-6 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 3 | - |
| Mike Dunleavy * | 22 | 6-13 | 2-3 | 1-1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 15 | 4 | - |
| Stephen Graham * | 15 | 1-4 | 0-1 | 2-2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 2 | - |
| Rasho Nesterovic * | 14 | 3-7 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 6 | - |
| Jarrett Jack * | 12 | 2-3 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 4 | - |
| Roy Hibbert * | 12 | 2-3 | 0-0 | 3-4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 8 | - |
| Marquis Daniels * | 6 | 0-2 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | - |
| Travis Diener | 9 | 2-3 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 5 | - |
San Antonio Spurs
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tim Duncan * | 26 | 10-15 | 0-0 | 7-8 | 10 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 27 | 22 | - |
| Bruce Bowen * | 25 | 2-3 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 6 | - |
| Tony Parker * | 25 | 6-15 | 0-0 | 1-2 | 0 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 13 | 6 | - |
| George Hill * | 22 | 2-5 | 0-1 | 3-4 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 7 | 5 | - |
| Roger Mason Jr. * | 22 | 3-9 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 4 | - |
| Manu Ginobili * | 20 | 8-10 | 4-4 | 6-7 | 8 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 26 | 28 | - |
| Michael Finley * | 18 | 1-3 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 5 | - |
| Ime Udoka * | 18 | 3-8 | 1-3 | 0-2 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 5 | - |
| Matt Bonner * | 17 | 1-4 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 7 | - |
| Kurt Thomas * | 16 | 1-6 | 0-0 | 2-2 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 5 | - |
| Fabricio Oberto * | 14 | 0-4 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | - |
| Austin Croshere | 10 | 0-3 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | - |
* = starter