Model Predictions
| Model | Los Angeles Lakers | Miami Heat | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 85.5% | 14.5% | - | ✗ |
| Bradley-Terry | 73.8% | 26.2% | - | ✗ |
| Margin | 67.9% | 32.1% | -4.1 | ✗ (6.1 off) |
| Pythagorean | 54.9% | 45.1% | - | ✗ |
| Efficiency | 72.2% | 27.8% | - | ✗ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 72.6% | 27.4% | - | ✗ |
| Log Adjusted | 72.6% | 27.4% | - | ✗ |
| Points Off/Def | 59.7% | 40.3% | - | ✗ |
Actual: Miami Heat +2 (89-87). Predictions use season-end ratings.
Los Angeles Lakers
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kobe Bryant * | 35 | 12-24 | 1-3 | 3-4 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 28 | 5 | - |
| Pau Gasol * | 34 | 5-10 | 0-0 | 3-6 | 11 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 13 | 16 | - |
| Derek Fisher * | 30 | 4-8 | 2-5 | 3-4 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 13 | 11 | - |
| Andrew Bynum * | 27 | 2-4 | 0-0 | 0-1 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 6 | - |
| Lamar Odom * | 26 | 1-6 | 0-1 | 1-4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 0 | - |
| Trevor Ariza * | 26 | 3-5 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 8 | - |
| Jordan Farmar * | 17 | 5-8 | 2-2 | 0-0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 12 | 8 | - |
| Luke Walton * | 16 | 1-4 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | - |
| Sasha Vujacic * | 16 | 2-3 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 2 | - |
| Vladimir Radmanovic * | 4 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | -3 | - |
| Josh Powell | 2 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | - |
Miami Heat
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mario Chalmers * | 40 | 3-12 | 2-7 | 2-2 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 10 | 2 | - |
| Shawn Marion * | 38 | 5-9 | 0-0 | 2-3 | 11 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 12 | 14 | - |
| Dwyane Wade * | 37 | 13-25 | 2-4 | 7-10 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 6 | 35 | 18 | - |
| Udonis Haslem * | 35 | 3-8 | 0-0 | 0-3 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 6 | 9 | - |
| Joel Anthony * | 31 | 1-5 | 0-0 | 2-2 | 8 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 12 | - |
| Michael Beasley * | 18 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 4-4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 6 | 3 | - |
| Daequan Cook * | 18 | 5-9 | 4-6 | 0-0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 14 | 7 | - |
| Jamaal Magloire * | 9 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | - |
| Chris Quinn * | 4 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | - |
| Yakhouba Diawara | 5 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | - |
* = starter