Model Predictions
| Model | San Antonio Spurs | Denver Nuggets | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 23.7% | 76.3% | +6.6 | ✗ (23.6 off) |
| Bradley-Terry | 37.3% | 62.7% | - | ✗ |
| Margin | 29.1% | 70.9% | +4.9 | ✗ (21.9 off) |
| Pythagorean | 46.1% | 53.9% | - | ✗ |
| Efficiency | 44.5% | 55.5% | - | ✗ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 42.0% | 58.0% | - | ✗ |
| Log Adjusted | 42.0% | 58.0% | - | ✗ |
| Points Off/Def | 39.7% | 60.3% | - | ✗ |
Actual: Denver Nuggets -17 (91-108). Ratings: 2008-09 season-end ratings.
San Antonio Spurs
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tim Duncan * | 38 | 7-12 | 0-0 | 7-8 | 12 | 7 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 21 | 32 | - |
| Tony Parker * | 36 | 10-21 | 0-3 | 2-2 | 1 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 22 | 3 | - |
| Roger Mason Jr. * | 29 | 4-14 | 2-10 | 1-1 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11 | 3 | - |
| Manu Ginobili * | 29 | 7-11 | 4-7 | 3-3 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 21 | 16 | - |
| Matt Bonner * | 28 | 6-8 | 2-2 | 0-0 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 14 | 15 | - |
| George Hill * | 19 | 3-8 | 1-3 | 4-4 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 11 | 9 | - |
| Michael Finley * | 13 | 2-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 5 | - |
| Bruce Bowen | 31 | 1-4 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 7 | - |
| Fabricio Oberto | 11 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 7 | - |
Denver Nuggets
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carmelo Anthony * | 40 | 7-16 | 0-0 | 2-3 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 7 | 16 | 5 | - |
| Chauncey Billups * | 39 | 5-13 | 2-4 | 0-0 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 12 | 5 | - |
| Nene Hilario * | 35 | 6-12 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 12 | 5 | - |
| Kenyon Martin * | 30 | 4-7 | 0-0 | 4-8 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 12 | 14 | - |
| JR Smith * | 26 | 5-15 | 2-4 | 3-7 | 10 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 15 | 15 | - |
| Linas Kleiza * | 25 | 2-5 | 2-4 | 4-4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 10 | 9 | - |
| Anthony Carter * | 21 | 2-4 | 0-1 | 1-1 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 5 | 2 | - |
| Dahntay Jones * | 13 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | - |
| Chris Andersen * | 6 | 3-5 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 7 | 7 | - |
* = starter