Model Predictions
| Model | Miami Heat | Toronto Raptors | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 15.7% | 84.3% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 14.4% | 85.6% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 6.6% | 93.4% | +14.6 | ✓ (1.4 off) |
| Pythagorean | 28.4% | 71.6% | - | ✓ |
| Efficiency | 12.1% | 87.9% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 11.2% | 88.8% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 11.1% | 88.9% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 22.2% | 77.8% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Toronto Raptors +16 (91-75). Predictions use season-end ratings.
Miami Heat
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Quinn * | 37 | 5-16 | 2-5 | 2-2 | 1 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 14 | 3 | - |
| Ricky Davis * | 36 | 4-12 | 1-5 | 2-2 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 6 | 11 | 4 | - |
| Daequan Cook * | 36 | 9-19 | 4-9 | 0-0 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 22 | 12 | - |
| Mark Blount * | 30 | 3-7 | 2-3 | 0-0 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 8 | 6 | - |
| Joel Anthony * | 24 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | - |
| Kasib Powell * | 24 | 3-10 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 10 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 9 | - |
| Earl Barron * | 21 | 4-10 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 3 | - |
| Stephane Lasme * | 17 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 2 | - |
| Jason Williams * | 7 | 1-3 | 0-1 | 1-1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 4 | - |
| Blake Ahearn | 3 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1-1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | - |
Toronto Raptors
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rasho Nesterovic * | 42 | 10-19 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 20 | 13 | - |
| Chris Bosh * | 31 | 3-7 | 0-0 | 9-12 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 15 | 19 | - |
| Anthony Parker * | 28 | 5-6 | 3-3 | 0-0 | 7 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 13 | 14 | - |
| Jose Calderon * | 24 | 1-4 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 6 | 11 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 17 | - |
| T.J. Ford * | 23 | 4-6 | 1-1 | 2-2 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 11 | 5 | - |
| Jamario Moon * | 22 | 2-6 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 10 | - |
| Jason Kapono * | 22 | 5-9 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 11 | 2 | - |
| Carlos Delfino * | 21 | 1-4 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 3 | - |
| Andrea Bargnani * | 18 | 2-11 | 1-6 | 3-3 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 8 | 6 | - |
| Joey Graham | 2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - |
| Primoz Brezec | 2 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | - |
| Kris Humphries | 2 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | - |
* = starter