Model Predictions
| Model | Dallas Mavericks | Miami Heat | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Margin | 35.2% | 64.8% | +3.4 | ✗ (28.4 off) |
| Pythagorean | 44.7% | 55.3% | - | ✗ |
Actual: Miami Heat -25 (73-98). Predictions use season-end ratings.
Dallas Mavericks
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Howard * | 27 | 7-14 | 0-2 | 1-2 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 15 | 8 | - |
| Dirk Nowitzki * | 25 | 7-11 | 2-2 | 5-7 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 21 | 19 | - |
| Brandon Bass * | 24 | 7-9 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 14 | 8 | - |
| Jason Kidd * | 23 | 2-3 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 6 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 13 | - |
| Erick Dampier * | 22 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 1-2 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 9 | - |
| Jason Terry * | 22 | 5-10 | 1-3 | 3-3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 14 | 6 | - |
| Tyronn Lue * | 21 | 2-7 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 4 | - |
| Devean George * | 21 | 0-6 | 0-3 | 1-2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | -1 | - |
| Jerry Stackhouse * | 20 | 3-6 | 1-3 | 5-5 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 12 | 7 | - |
| Malik Allen * | 18 | 3-4 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 5 | - |
| Antoine Wright | 8 | 1-3 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | -1 | - |
| Juwan Howard | 5 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | - |
Miami Heat
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Daequan Cook * | 40 | 5-12 | 1-4 | 0-0 | 8 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 11 | 8 | - |
| Ricky Davis * | 30 | 2-5 | 1-1 | 0-2 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 5 | 4 | - |
| Earl Barron * | 27 | 9-14 | 0-0 | 3-5 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 21 | 13 | - |
| Joel Anthony * | 27 | 1-5 | 0-0 | 0-2 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 1 | - |
| Bobby Jones * | 27 | 1-2 | 0-1 | 2-3 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 8 | - |
| Jason Williams * | 26 | 3-11 | 0-3 | 0-0 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 6 | -4 | - |
| Mark Blount * | 25 | 4-10 | 0-0 | 1-2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 9 | 0 | - |
| Chris Quinn * | 22 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 6-6 | 1 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 11 | - |
| Alexander Johnson * | 11 | 3-7 | 0-0 | 1-1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 2 | - |
* = starter