Model Predictions
| Model | Miami Heat | Sacramento Kings | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Margin | 61.2% | 38.8% | -2.5 | ✗ (13.5 off) |
| Pythagorean | 56.8% | 43.2% | - | ✗ |
Actual: Sacramento Kings +11 (120-109). Predictions use season-end ratings.
Miami Heat
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shawn Marion * | 40 | 7-12 | 1-3 | 4-4 | 8 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 19 | 18 | - |
| Dwyane Wade * | 39 | 8-15 | 1-5 | 9-10 | 2 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 26 | 16 | - |
| Jason Williams * | 31 | 6-11 | 4-5 | 2-2 | 5 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 18 | 21 | - |
| Ricky Davis * | 29 | 5-10 | 3-6 | 1-2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 14 | 5 | - |
| Udonis Haslem * | 27 | 3-5 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 8 | - |
| Mark Blount * | 18 | 3-7 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 3 | - |
| Earl Barron * | 18 | 2-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 4 | -2 | - |
| Marcus Banks * | 16 | 3-5 | 1-3 | 1-2 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 8 | 9 | - |
| Alexander Johnson * | 13 | 2-3 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 3 | - |
| Dorell Wright * | 4 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 1-1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 | - |
Sacramento Kings
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brad Miller * | 40 | 5-12 | 1-2 | 3-4 | 9 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 14 | 17 | - |
| Beno Udrih * | 39 | 9-12 | 2-2 | 3-3 | 4 | 9 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 23 | 27 | - |
| Metta World Peace * | 38 | 12-22 | 4-6 | 4-4 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 32 | 14 | - |
| Kevin Martin * | 37 | 6-12 | 3-4 | 14-17 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 29 | 18 | - |
| Mikki Moore * | 32 | 2-5 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 8 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 6 | - |
| John Salmons * | 18 | 3-4 | 2-2 | 0-0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 8 | - |
| Francisco Garcia * | 12 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 2-2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | - |
| Anthony Johnson * | 8 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | - |
| Spencer Hawes * | 8 | 2-3 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 3 | - |
| Quincy Douby | 2 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | - |
| Shelden Williams | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - |
* = starter