Model Predictions
| Model | Miami Heat | Orlando Magic | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Margin | 60.5% | 39.5% | -2.3 | ✗ (23.3 off) |
| Pythagorean | 55.6% | 44.4% | - | ✗ |
Actual: Orlando Magic +21 (120-99). Predictions use season-end ratings.
Miami Heat
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ricky Davis * | 41 | 7-16 | 3-9 | 6-6 | 6 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 23 | 20 | - |
| Dwyane Wade * | 40 | 12-21 | 0-1 | 8-11 | 6 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 32 | 21 | - |
| Udonis Haslem * | 33 | 3-7 | 0-0 | 2-2 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 8 | 7 | - |
| Shaquille O'Neal * | 30 | 8-15 | 0-0 | 4-6 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 20 | 9 | - |
| Jason Williams * | 29 | 1-5 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 4 | - |
| Smush Parker * | 27 | 3-7 | 1-4 | 0-0 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 5 | - |
| Alonzo Mourning | 13 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 5 | - |
| Anfernee Hardaway | 9 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | - |
| Mark Blount | 8 | 2-4 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | - |
| Chris Quinn | 2 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - |
| Alexander Johnson | 2 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | - |
| Dorell Wright | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - |
Orlando Magic
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rashard Lewis * | 38 | 7-18 | 0-6 | 5-5 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 19 | 7 | - |
| Dwight Howard * | 38 | 6-7 | 0-0 | 5-10 | 13 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 17 | 26 | - |
| Hedo Turkoglu * | 37 | 9-16 | 5-7 | 4-6 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 27 | 16 | - |
| Jameer Nelson * | 30 | 5-8 | 0-1 | 2-4 | 7 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 12 | 16 | - |
| Keith Bogans * | 26 | 3-4 | 2-3 | 1-2 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 15 | - |
| Keyon Dooling * | 22 | 4-7 | 1-1 | 8-8 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 17 | 11 | - |
| Carlos Arroyo * | 16 | 2-3 | 0-0 | 3-4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 7 | - |
| Adonal Foyle * | 9 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | - |
| Brian Cook * | 8 | 2-4 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 4 | - |
| Maurice Evans | 11 | 3-7 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | -1 | - |
* = starter