Model Predictions
| Model | Miami Heat | Cleveland Cavaliers | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 13.5% | 86.5% | +7.9 | ✗ (11.9 off) |
| Bradley-Terry | 32.1% | 67.9% | - | ✗ |
| Margin | 18.6% | 81.4% | +8.1 | ✗ (12.1 off) |
| Pythagorean | 40.1% | 59.9% | - | ✗ |
| Efficiency | 25.1% | 74.9% | - | ✗ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 28.4% | 71.6% | - | ✗ |
| Log Adjusted | 28.3% | 71.7% | - | ✗ |
| Points Off/Def | 32.6% | 67.4% | - | ✗ |
Actual: Cleveland Cavaliers -4 (90-94). Ratings: 2006-07 season-end ratings.
Miami Heat
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eddie Jones * | 42 | 4-12 | 2-8 | 3-4 | 3 | 8 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 13 | 14 | - |
| Shaquille O'Neal * | 41 | 9-13 | 0-0 | 2-5 | 8 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 20 | 15 | - |
| Udonis Haslem * | 36 | 6-12 | 0-0 | 3-4 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 15 | 11 | - |
| Jason Williams * | 32 | 1-8 | 0-3 | 3-4 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 3 | - |
| James Posey * | 27 | 2-7 | 0-2 | 1-5 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 5 | - |
| Jason Kapono * | 27 | 4-11 | 3-4 | 0-0 | 4 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11 | 9 | - |
| Antoine Walker * | 24 | 7-11 | 6-8 | 0-0 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 20 | 13 | - |
| Gary Payton * | 20 | 2-4 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 4 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 11 | - |
| Alonzo Mourning * | 10 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1-4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 2 | - |
Cleveland Cavaliers
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LeBron James * | 48 | 11-21 | 2-5 | 11-13 | 9 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 35 | 24 | - |
| Sasha Pavlovic * | 46 | 5-13 | 1-5 | 3-4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 14 | 5 | - |
| Larry Hughes * | 40 | 4-9 | 0-1 | 6-8 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 14 | 12 | - |
| Drew Gooden * | 33 | 7-15 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 14 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 14 | 13 | - |
| Zydrunas Ilgauskas * | 25 | 2-10 | 0-0 | 2-2 | 8 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 6 | 5 | - |
| Anderson Varejao * | 23 | 0-6 | 0-1 | 2-2 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | - |
| Daniel Gibson * | 13 | 0-3 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -3 | - |
| Donyell Marshall * | 12 | 1-5 | 1-4 | 0-0 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 4 | - |
| Eric Snow * | 10 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | -2 | - |
| Scot Pollard * | 10 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 | - |
* = starter