Model Predictions
| Model | Dallas Mavericks | Phoenix Suns | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 41.2% | 58.8% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 53.7% | 46.3% | - | ✗ |
| Margin | 40.7% | 59.3% | +2.1 | ✓ (10.9 off) |
| Pythagorean | 48.4% | 51.6% | - | ✓ |
| Efficiency | 53.0% | 47.0% | - | ✗ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 53.8% | 46.2% | - | ✗ |
| Log Adjusted | 53.8% | 46.2% | - | ✗ |
| Points Off/Def | 46.3% | 53.7% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Phoenix Suns +13 (117-104). Predictions use season-end ratings.
Dallas Mavericks
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dirk Nowitzki * | 41 | 12-23 | 0-3 | 12-12 | 11 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 36 | 24 | - |
| Jason Terry * | 39 | 8-20 | 2-8 | 0-0 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 18 | 3 | - |
| Josh Howard * | 35 | 7-15 | 0-1 | 4-5 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 18 | 10 | - |
| Darrell Armstrong * | 27 | 4-7 | 2-3 | 2-2 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 12 | 10 | - |
| Marquis Daniels * | 20 | 4-9 | 0-1 | 1-2 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 9 | 5 | - |
| Adrian Griffin * | 20 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 8 | - |
| Erick Dampier * | 17 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 2-4 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 10 | - |
| Josh Powell * | 15 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | - |
| DJ Mbenga * | 14 | 1-4 | 0-0 | 1-2 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 6 | - |
| Devin Harris | 7 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2-4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | - |
| Rawle Marshall | 1 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | - |
Phoenix Suns
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Boris Diaw * | 39 | 7-15 | 0-0 | 2-3 | 8 | 6 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 16 | 16 | - |
| Shawn Marion * | 34 | 12-16 | 2-2 | 3-5 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 29 | 21 | - |
| Tim Thomas * | 32 | 8-13 | 6-7 | 0-0 | 5 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 22 | 15 | - |
| Raja Bell * | 31 | 8-9 | 5-5 | 0-0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 21 | 16 | - |
| Steve Nash * | 29 | 3-9 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 5 | 13 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 14 | - |
| Leandro Barbosa * | 24 | 2-7 | 1-4 | 1-2 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 8 | - |
| James Jones * | 17 | 1-4 | 0-0 | 2-2 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 3 | - |
| Eddie House * | 17 | 4-9 | 2-4 | 3-4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13 | 5 | - |
| Brian Grant * | 14 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | - |
* = starter