Model Predictions
| Model | Detroit Pistons | Miami Heat | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 16.7% | 83.3% | - | ✗ |
| Bradley-Terry | 51.8% | 48.2% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 41.6% | 58.4% | +1.9 | ✗ (14.9 off) |
| Pythagorean | 49.6% | 50.4% | - | ✗ |
| Efficiency | 56.7% | 43.3% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 54.7% | 45.3% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 54.7% | 45.3% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 46.8% | 53.2% | - | ✗ |
Actual: Miami Heat -13 (82-95). Predictions use season-end ratings.
Detroit Pistons
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tayshaun Prince * | 39 | 8-14 | 0-0 | 4-6 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 20 | 14 | - |
| Richard Hamilton * | 38 | 7-16 | 0-0 | 5-6 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 19 | 10 | - |
| Rasheed Wallace * | 37 | 7-15 | 2-3 | 4-5 | 8 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 20 | 17 | - |
| Ben Wallace * | 35 | 2-3 | 0-0 | 2-7 | 9 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 6 | 16 | - |
| Chauncey Billups * | 34 | 4-10 | 3-7 | 3-3 | 2 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 14 | 11 | - |
| Antonio McDyess * | 22 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 5 | - |
| Lindsey Hunter * | 13 | 1-4 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | - |
| Tony Delk * | 12 | 6-7 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 12 | 7 | - |
| Maurice Evans | 5 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | - |
Miami Heat
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dwyane Wade * | 45 | 11-22 | 0-0 | 7-10 | 9 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 29 | 20 | - |
| Shaquille O'Neal * | 36 | 12-18 | 0-0 | 4-10 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 28 | 16 | - |
| Udonis Haslem * | 35 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 3-4 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 10 | - |
| Antoine Walker * | 35 | 3-11 | 0-4 | 0-0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 6 | -2 | - |
| Gary Payton * | 33 | 2-10 | 0-3 | 0-0 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0 | - |
| Michael Doleac * | 18 | 2-3 | 0-0 | 2-2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 5 | - |
| Derek Anderson * | 18 | 1-4 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 6 | - |
| Shandon Anderson * | 17 | 2-4 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 5 | - |
* = starter