Model Predictions
| Model | Golden State Warriors | Miami Heat | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Margin | 48.6% | 51.4% | +0.3 | ✗ (5.3 off) |
| Pythagorean | 49.1% | 50.9% | - | ✗ |
Actual: Miami Heat -5 (106-111). Predictions use season-end ratings.
Golden State Warriors
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jason Richardson * | 38 | 17-26 | 6-7 | 4-10 | 6 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 44 | 24 | - |
| Derek Fisher * | 36 | 4-10 | 1-2 | 5-8 | 3 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 14 | 11 | - |
| Troy Murphy * | 31 | 7-12 | 1-3 | 3-4 | 12 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 18 | 19 | - |
| Baron Davis * | 27 | 4-12 | 2-4 | 3-6 | 3 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 13 | 8 | - |
| Mike Dunleavy * | 25 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 2-2 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 4 | - |
| Adonal Foyle * | 21 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3 | - |
| Ike Diogu * | 18 | 2-5 | 0-0 | 3-4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 5 | - |
| Monta Ellis * | 16 | 1-3 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | - |
| Zarko Cabarkapa * | 13 | 2-2 | 0-0 | 1-2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 4 | - |
| Andris Biedrins * | 9 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 0-2 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | - |
Miami Heat
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dwyane Wade * | 40 | 14-20 | 2-4 | 12-17 | 6 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 42 | 31 | - |
| Shaquille O'Neal * | 36 | 9-15 | 0-0 | 3-6 | 15 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 21 | 24 | - |
| Udonis Haslem * | 34 | 2-5 | 0-0 | 2-2 | 8 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 12 | - |
| Jason Williams * | 32 | 3-9 | 1-5 | 0-0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 7 | -1 | - |
| Gary Payton * | 23 | 1-4 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | - |
| James Posey * | 20 | 4-6 | 2-4 | 0-0 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 10 | 11 | - |
| Antoine Walker * | 16 | 4-9 | 1-4 | 1-1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 10 | 1 | - |
| Derek Anderson * | 14 | 1-6 | 1-4 | 0-0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | - |
| Shandon Anderson * | 11 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | - |
| Alonzo Mourning * | 10 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3 | - |
* = starter