Model Predictions
| Model | Atlanta Hawks | Miami Heat | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 3.3% | 96.7% | +13.2 | ✓ (11.2 off) |
| Bradley-Terry | 13.5% | 86.5% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 9.3% | 90.7% | +12.5 | ✓ (10.5 off) |
| Pythagorean | 34.4% | 65.6% | - | ✓ |
| Efficiency | 17.2% | 82.8% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 16.8% | 83.2% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 16.7% | 83.3% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 25.2% | 74.8% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Miami Heat +2 (95-93). Ratings: 2005-06 season-end ratings.
Atlanta Hawks
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Smith * | 45 | 9-12 | 1-2 | 2-2 | 8 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 21 | 22 | - |
| Joe Johnson * | 45 | 10-18 | 1-2 | 7-9 | 2 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 28 | 16 | - |
| Al Harrington * | 31 | 4-13 | 1-4 | 5-6 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 14 | 5 | - |
| Marvin Williams * | 26 | 2-5 | 0-0 | 3-4 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 7 | 8 | - |
| Royal Ivey * | 26 | 2-7 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 4 | - |
| Salim Stoudamire * | 19 | 2-10 | 0-1 | 3-3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 7 | -2 | - |
| Esteban Batista * | 18 | 2-3 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 10 | - |
| Zaza Pachulia * | 16 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 2-4 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 6 | - |
| John Edwards * | 10 | 2-3 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 6 | - |
Miami Heat
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jason Williams * | 37 | 5-10 | 1-5 | 3-3 | 3 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 14 | 13 | - |
| Antoine Walker * | 36 | 6-12 | 0-3 | 1-2 | 6 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 13 | 14 | - |
| Udonis Haslem * | 32 | 5-9 | 0-0 | 5-6 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 15 | 12 | - |
| Gary Payton * | 30 | 1-6 | 0-2 | 0-2 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | - |
| Shaquille O'Neal * | 25 | 5-7 | 0-0 | 11-20 | 8 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 21 | 21 | - |
| Derek Anderson * | 22 | 4-10 | 2-5 | 4-4 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 14 | 11 | - |
| Alonzo Mourning * | 21 | 4-4 | 0-0 | 3-5 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 11 | 11 | - |
| Shandon Anderson * | 16 | 2-4 | 0-0 | 1-2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 2 | - |
| James Posey * | 16 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | - |
* = starter