Model Predictions
| Model | Miami Heat | Orlando Magic | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 71.5% | 28.5% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 69.9% | 30.1% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 60.8% | 39.2% | -2.4 | ✓ (7.6 off) |
| Pythagorean | 54.1% | 45.9% | - | ✓ |
| Efficiency | 66.7% | 33.3% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 68.6% | 31.4% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 68.7% | 31.3% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 56.3% | 43.7% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Orlando Magic -10 (100-110). Predictions use season-end ratings.
Miami Heat
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dwyane Wade * | 40 | 10-19 | 0-0 | 16-19 | 10 | 9 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 36 | 33 | - |
| Jason Williams * | 37 | 2-7 | 1-4 | 0-0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 1 | - |
| Antoine Walker * | 35 | 10-17 | 6-11 | 0-0 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 26 | 10 | - |
| Udonis Haslem * | 33 | 5-10 | 0-0 | 2-3 | 12 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 12 | 18 | - |
| Shaquille O'Neal * | 31 | 3-8 | 0-0 | 1-5 | 11 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 7 | 14 | - |
| Gary Payton * | 22 | 5-8 | 3-6 | 0-0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13 | 9 | - |
| Alonzo Mourning * | 15 | 2-2 | 0-0 | 1-2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 6 | - |
| Shandon Anderson * | 11 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | - |
| Jason Kapono | 10 | 2-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 1 | - |
| Michael Doleac | 1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -1 | - |
Orlando Magic
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Steve Francis * | 38 | 3-15 | 0-2 | 6-7 | 6 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 12 | 7 | - |
| Dwight Howard * | 37 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 14-18 | 11 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 16 | 27 | - |
| Hedo Turkoglu * | 37 | 5-12 | 1-3 | 3-5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 14 | 4 | - |
| DeShawn Stevenson * | 34 | 7-15 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 3 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 14 | 4 | - |
| Tony Battie * | 32 | 7-11 | 0-0 | 2-2 | 9 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 16 | 18 | - |
| Keyon Dooling * | 17 | 3-6 | 0-1 | 5-5 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 11 | 8 | - |
| Grant Hill * | 13 | 1-5 | 0-0 | 5-6 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 3 | - |
| Pat Garrity * | 13 | 1-1 | 1-1 | 3-4 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 10 | - |
| Mario Kasun * | 12 | 1-5 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -1 | - |
| Stacey Augmon | 2 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | - |
* = starter