Model Predictions
| Model | Orlando Magic | Miami Heat | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 16.6% | 83.4% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 19.5% | 80.5% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 15.5% | 84.5% | +9.3 | ✓ (4.7 off) |
| Pythagorean | 39.9% | 60.1% | - | ✓ |
| Efficiency | 27.3% | 72.7% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 25.4% | 74.6% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 25.3% | 74.7% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 31.0% | 69.0% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Miami Heat +14 (107-93). Predictions use season-end ratings.
Orlando Magic
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Steve Francis * | 37 | 4-11 | 0-0 | 7-8 | 4 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 15 | 10 | - |
| Dwight Howard * | 37 | 6-15 | 0-0 | 1-4 | 13 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 13 | 12 | - |
| Keyon Dooling * | 31 | 5-14 | 0-0 | 5-6 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 15 | 5 | - |
| Hedo Turkoglu * | 30 | 6-10 | 2-3 | 1-2 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 15 | 8 | - |
| Pat Garrity * | 24 | 0-5 | 0-5 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -4 | - |
| Grant Hill * | 19 | 4-9 | 0-0 | 4-7 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 12 | 13 | - |
| Tony Battie * | 16 | 3-6 | 0-0 | 0-2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 1 | - |
| DeShawn Stevenson * | 13 | 3-4 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 4 | - |
| Stacey Augmon * | 11 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2-2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | - |
| Mario Kasun | 15 | 2-7 | 0-0 | 5-6 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 9 | - |
| Travis Diener | 1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | - |
| Terence Morris | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -1 | - |
Miami Heat
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Udonis Haslem * | 41 | 3-7 | 0-0 | 4-6 | 14 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 10 | 15 | - |
| Dwyane Wade * | 40 | 13-20 | 0-0 | 12-14 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 38 | 24 | - |
| Antoine Walker * | 38 | 5-8 | 1-4 | 1-2 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 12 | 12 | - |
| Jason Williams * | 31 | 3-8 | 2-6 | 2-2 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 10 | 7 | - |
| Shaquille O'Neal * | 30 | 9-12 | 0-0 | 7-14 | 11 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 25 | 27 | - |
| Gary Payton * | 23 | 1-2 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | - |
| Alonzo Mourning * | 14 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 4-7 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 6 | 5 | - |
| Shandon Anderson * | 12 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | - |
| Michael Doleac | 2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2-2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 | - |
| Dorell Wright | 1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | -1 | - |
| Jason Kapono | 1 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | - |
* = starter