Model Predictions
| Model | San Antonio Spurs | Miami Heat | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Margin | 46.0% | 54.0% | +0.9 | ✗ (7.9 off) |
| Pythagorean | 48.5% | 51.5% | - | ✗ |
Actual: Miami Heat -7 (94-101). Predictions use season-end ratings.
San Antonio Spurs
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tony Parker * | 38 | 13-18 | 2-2 | 10-13 | 4 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 38 | 28 | - |
| Tim Duncan * | 38 | 5-10 | 0-0 | 4-12 | 11 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 14 | 13 | - |
| Bruce Bowen * | 32 | 3-10 | 1-4 | 3-4 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 10 | 4 | - |
| Michael Finley * | 28 | 1-8 | 0-4 | 3-3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 5 | -1 | - |
| Rasho Nesterovic * | 26 | 3-5 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 6 | 11 | - |
| Manu Ginobili * | 19 | 2-3 | 1-1 | 3-7 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 8 | 11 | - |
| Fabricio Oberto * | 18 | 2-5 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 2 | - |
| Nick Van Exel * | 13 | 2-4 | 2-4 | 0-0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 4 | - |
| Brent Barry * | 12 | 2-3 | 2-3 | 1-2 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 10 | - |
| Sean Marks * | 7 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 1-2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 3 | - |
| Nazr Mohammed | 5 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -1 | - |
Miami Heat
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dwyane Wade * | 41 | 14-29 | 1-2 | 7-8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 5 | 36 | 10 | - |
| James Posey * | 39 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 5 | - |
| Jason Williams * | 39 | 8-11 | 1-3 | 1-2 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 18 | 10 | - |
| Shaquille O'Neal * | 30 | 9-14 | 0-0 | 5-11 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 23 | 16 | - |
| Antoine Walker * | 29 | 5-9 | 1-4 | 1-2 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 12 | 10 | - |
| Gary Payton * | 23 | 0-3 | 0-1 | 1-2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | - |
| Udonis Haslem * | 19 | 1-6 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | - |
| Alonzo Mourning * | 17 | 1-4 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 7 | - |
* = starter