Model Predictions
| Model | Miami Heat | Utah Jazz | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 69.0% | 31.0% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 61.3% | 38.7% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 65.9% | 34.1% | -3.6 | ✓ (2.4 off) |
| Pythagorean | 56.6% | 43.4% | - | ✓ |
| Efficiency | 71.5% | 28.5% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 72.2% | 27.8% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 72.3% | 27.7% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 59.0% | 41.0% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Utah Jazz -6 (94-100). Predictions use season-end ratings.
Miami Heat
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dwyane Wade * | 45 | 10-20 | 0-1 | 11-12 | 8 | 8 | 4 | 1 | 5 | 31 | 27 | - |
| James Posey * | 41 | 6-12 | 5-8 | 0-0 | 9 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 17 | 15 | - |
| Shaquille O'Neal * | 33 | 5-14 | 0-0 | 2-3 | 14 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 12 | 16 | - |
| Gary Payton * | 25 | 5-9 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11 | 4 | - |
| Gerald Fitch * | 24 | 2-7 | 0-1 | 6-7 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 10 | 5 | - |
| Udonis Haslem * | 24 | 2-5 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 9 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 11 | - |
| Antoine Walker * | 24 | 3-7 | 2-5 | 1-2 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 9 | 7 | - |
| Alonzo Mourning * | 12 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 2-4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 4 | - |
| Wayne Simien * | 7 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | - |
Utah Jazz
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andrei Kirilenko * | 44 | 8-13 | 2-4 | 7-8 | 8 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 25 | 27 | - |
| Mehmet Okur * | 34 | 5-9 | 1-3 | 9-11 | 14 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 20 | 27 | - |
| Milt Palacio * | 26 | 7-11 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 14 | 7 | - |
| Deron Williams * | 26 | 3-11 | 0-3 | 0-0 | 1 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 2 | - |
| Matt Harpring * | 25 | 5-9 | 0-1 | 2-2 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 12 | 8 | - |
| Gordan Giricek * | 23 | 2-9 | 0-1 | 1-2 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 5 | -1 | - |
| Jarron Collins * | 23 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 1-3 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 6 | - |
| Greg Ostertag * | 15 | 1-5 | 0-0 | 1-2 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 7 | - |
| Keith McLeod * | 13 | 1-4 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | - |
| Devin Brown * | 7 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 2-2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 0 | - |
* = starter