Model Predictions
| Model | San Antonio Spurs | Denver Nuggets | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 85.4% | 14.6% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 66.7% | 33.3% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 63.4% | 36.6% | -3.0 | ✓ (7.0 off) |
| Pythagorean | 54.8% | 45.2% | - | ✓ |
| Efficiency | 70.5% | 29.5% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 70.3% | 29.7% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 70.3% | 29.7% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 57.7% | 42.3% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Denver Nuggets -10 (88-98). Predictions use season-end ratings.
San Antonio Spurs
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tony Parker * | 35 | 3-9 | 0-2 | 0-2 | 2 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 4 | - |
| Michael Finley * | 34 | 5-11 | 2-6 | 2-2 | 4 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14 | 12 | - |
| Tim Duncan * | 34 | 8-16 | 0-0 | 9-9 | 10 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 25 | 23 | - |
| Robert Horry * | 22 | 3-7 | 2-5 | 2-2 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 10 | 9 | - |
| Rasho Nesterovic * | 21 | 2-6 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 6 | - |
| Bruce Bowen * | 21 | 2-5 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 5 | - |
| Brent Barry * | 14 | 2-6 | 1-3 | 3-4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 3 | - |
| Beno Udrih * | 12 | 2-4 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 2 | - |
| Manu Ginobili | 24 | 6-10 | 1-3 | 7-10 | 4 | 8 | 4 | 0 | 4 | 20 | 22 | - |
| Fabricio Oberto | 9 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | - |
| Nazr Mohammed | 8 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 5 | - |
| Sean Marks | 0 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | - |
Denver Nuggets
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andre Miller * | 40 | 5-15 | 0-0 | 5-8 | 3 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 15 | 4 | - |
| Carmelo Anthony * | 39 | 8-22 | 0-1 | 9-13 | 8 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 25 | 11 | - |
| Kenyon Martin * | 32 | 4-13 | 0-0 | 3-5 | 12 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 11 | 15 | - |
| Eduardo Najera * | 29 | 1-5 | 0-0 | 5-6 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 7 | 10 | - |
| Francisco Elson * | 28 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 2-2 | 11 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 12 | - |
| Earl Boykins * | 26 | 4-9 | 0-1 | 4-4 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12 | 5 | - |
| Greg Buckner * | 19 | 1-3 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 7 | - |
| Earl Watson * | 17 | 2-3 | 2-2 | 5-6 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 11 | 8 | - |
| Linas Kleiza * | 6 | 1-4 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | - |
| Julius Hodge | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -1 | - |
* = starter