Model Predictions
| Model | Miami Heat | Detroit Pistons | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 61.8% | 38.2% | - | ✗ |
| Bradley-Terry | 35.3% | 64.7% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 28.7% | 71.3% | +5.0 | ✓ (0.0 off) |
| Pythagorean | 44.4% | 55.6% | - | ✓ |
| Efficiency | 37.3% | 62.7% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 39.4% | 60.6% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 39.4% | 60.6% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 39.8% | 60.2% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Detroit Pistons +5 (106-101). Predictions use season-end ratings.
Miami Heat
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dwyane Wade * | 45 | 14-20 | 0-0 | 5-5 | 6 | 9 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 33 | 25 | - |
| Jason Williams * | 38 | 8-16 | 2-5 | 2-2 | 3 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 20 | 13 | - |
| Shaquille O'Neal * | 35 | 11-21 | 0-0 | 4-10 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 26 | 12 | - |
| Udonis Haslem * | 32 | 3-6 | 0-0 | 2-2 | 10 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 15 | - |
| Gary Payton * | 30 | 2-6 | 1-4 | 0-0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 3 | - |
| James Posey * | 29 | 1-4 | 0-2 | 0-1 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 5 | - |
| Antoine Walker * | 15 | 1-5 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | -1 | - |
| Alonzo Mourning * | 12 | 2-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 7 | - |
Detroit Pistons
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Richard Hamilton * | 43 | 9-15 | 0-0 | 7-8 | 4 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 25 | 22 | - |
| Tayshaun Prince * | 39 | 6-13 | 1-4 | 0-0 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 13 | 3 | - |
| Chauncey Billups * | 38 | 8-17 | 2-7 | 12-12 | 3 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 30 | 22 | - |
| Rasheed Wallace * | 37 | 8-16 | 4-6 | 1-2 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 21 | 9 | - |
| Ben Wallace * | 36 | 2-3 | 0-0 | 0-1 | 14 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 20 | - |
| Antonio McDyess * | 19 | 2-5 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | - |
| Carlos Delfino * | 8 | 2-4 | 0-1 | 1-2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 1 | - |
| Maurice Evans * | 6 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | - |
| Carlos Arroyo | 9 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 4-4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 6 | - |
* = starter