Model Predictions
| Model | Atlanta Hawks | Miami Heat | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Margin | 27.2% | 72.8% | +5.4 | ✓ (13.6 off) |
| Pythagorean | 42.1% | 57.9% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Miami Heat +19 (111-92). Predictions use season-end ratings.
Atlanta Hawks
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joe Johnson * | 30 | 4-9 | 0-2 | 5-7 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 13 | 9 | - |
| Josh Childress * | 29 | 7-11 | 0-0 | 0-1 | 9 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 14 | 11 | - |
| Josh Smith * | 28 | 2-7 | 0-0 | 0-1 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 4 | - |
| Marvin Williams * | 26 | 9-14 | 1-3 | 7-9 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 26 | 23 | - |
| Al Harrington * | 24 | 3-9 | 0-1 | 6-6 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 12 | 5 | - |
| Zaza Pachulia * | 19 | 1-9 | 0-0 | 1-2 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 3 | -2 | - |
| John Edwards * | 19 | 3-7 | 0-0 | 2-2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 8 | 4 | - |
| Tyronn Lue * | 17 | 1-2 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 3 | - |
| Royal Ivey * | 7 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | - |
| John Thomas * | 4 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | - |
| Salim Stoudamire | 25 | 2-7 | 1-4 | 2-2 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 2 | - |
| Esteban Batista | 6 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 1-4 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | - |
Miami Heat
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jason Kapono * | 31 | 3-5 | 0-0 | 2-2 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 9 | - |
| James Posey * | 27 | 1-2 | 1-2 | 2-2 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 15 | - |
| Gary Payton * | 27 | 5-13 | 0-2 | 5-5 | 3 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 15 | 14 | - |
| Shaquille O'Neal * | 24 | 13-15 | 0-0 | 2-6 | 10 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 28 | 28 | - |
| Dwyane Wade * | 23 | 3-6 | 1-1 | 7-8 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 14 | 12 | - |
| Gerald Fitch * | 22 | 4-7 | 1-1 | 6-8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 15 | 14 | - |
| Michael Doleac * | 21 | 1-5 | 0-0 | 1-2 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 3 | - |
| Udonis Haslem * | 21 | 2-4 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 3 | - |
| Antoine Walker * | 20 | 5-12 | 1-5 | 2-2 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 13 | 4 | - |
| Dorell Wright | 11 | 1-5 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | - |
| Wayne Simien | 8 | 2-4 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 2 | - |
* = starter