Model Predictions
| Model | Miami Heat | Denver Nuggets | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 90.0% | 10.0% | - | ✗ |
| Bradley-Terry | 57.9% | 42.1% | - | ✗ |
| Margin | 53.9% | 46.1% | -0.9 | ✗ (2.9 off) |
| Pythagorean | 52.3% | 47.7% | - | ✗ |
| Efficiency | 62.4% | 37.6% | - | ✗ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 63.2% | 36.8% | - | ✗ |
| Log Adjusted | 63.2% | 36.8% | - | ✗ |
| Points Off/Def | 52.9% | 47.1% | - | ✗ |
Actual: Denver Nuggets +2 (101-99). Predictions use season-end ratings.
Miami Heat
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| James Posey * | 41 | 1-6 | 1-4 | 2-2 | 10 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 13 | - |
| Antoine Walker * | 33 | 9-21 | 2-9 | 0-0 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 20 | 8 | - |
| Dwyane Wade * | 33 | 9-16 | 0-0 | 14-19 | 6 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 32 | 29 | - |
| Gary Payton * | 31 | 6-7 | 3-4 | 2-2 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 17 | 16 | - |
| Udonis Haslem * | 26 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 4 | - |
| Alonzo Mourning * | 25 | 3-7 | 0-0 | 0-2 | 9 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 6 | 8 | - |
| Jason Williams * | 20 | 4-10 | 3-8 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11 | 3 | - |
| Jason Kapono * | 13 | 3-6 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 2 | - |
| Wayne Simien * | 8 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | - |
| Shandon Anderson * | 4 | 0-3 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -1 | - |
Denver Nuggets
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andre Miller * | 36 | 8-16 | 0-0 | 6-7 | 6 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 22 | 15 | - |
| Marcus Camby * | 35 | 4-15 | 0-1 | 1-1 | 12 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 9 | 11 | - |
| Kenyon Martin * | 32 | 5-10 | 0-0 | 1-3 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11 | 6 | - |
| Greg Buckner * | 29 | 2-4 | 2-3 | 0-0 | 7 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 17 | - |
| Carmelo Anthony * | 28 | 10-20 | 0-1 | 3-3 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 23 | 6 | - |
| Eduardo Najera * | 27 | 3-6 | 0-0 | 2-4 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 11 | - |
| Earl Boykins * | 25 | 4-11 | 2-4 | 2-2 | 0 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12 | 8 | - |
| DerMarr Johnson * | 16 | 3-4 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 4 | - |
| Linas Kleiza * | 8 | 2-3 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 4 | - |
* = starter