Model Predictions
| Model | Dallas Mavericks | Miami Heat | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Margin | 35.2% | 64.8% | +3.4 | ✗ (16.4 off) |
| Pythagorean | 44.7% | 55.3% | - | ✗ |
Actual: Miami Heat -13 (90-103). Predictions use season-end ratings.
Dallas Mavericks
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Howard * | 40 | 11-19 | 1-2 | 2-2 | 11 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 25 | 19 | - |
| Marquis Daniels * | 40 | 4-10 | 0-0 | 6-6 | 9 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 6 | 14 | 15 | - |
| Dirk Nowitzki * | 39 | 7-16 | 4-5 | 5-6 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 23 | 15 | - |
| Erick Dampier * | 33 | 6-9 | 0-0 | 5-6 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 17 | 16 | - |
| Jason Terry * | 30 | 4-7 | 1-3 | 1-2 | 0 | 10 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 10 | 9 | - |
| Devin Harris * | 21 | 2-6 | 0-0 | 2-2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 4 | - |
| Keith Van Horn * | 21 | 3-7 | 2-5 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 3 | - |
| DeSagana Diop * | 13 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | - |
| Josh Powell | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - |
Miami Heat
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| James Posey * | 39 | 3-5 | 0-0 | 4-5 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10 | 8 | - |
| Jason Williams * | 39 | 11-20 | 0-4 | 2-3 | 6 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 24 | 13 | - |
| Dwyane Wade * | 39 | 7-19 | 0-3 | 9-10 | 0 | 4 | 5 | 0 | 5 | 23 | 8 | - |
| Udonis Haslem * | 36 | 6-8 | 0-0 | 2-2 | 8 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 14 | 17 | - |
| Alonzo Mourning * | 28 | 5-8 | 0-0 | 3-9 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 0 | 13 | 18 | - |
| Antoine Walker * | 21 | 1-13 | 0-4 | 0-0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -9 | - |
| Gary Payton * | 18 | 1-4 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | - |
| Wayne Simien * | 10 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | - |
| Shandon Anderson * | 4 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -1 | - |
| Jason Kapono * | 3 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | - |
* = starter