Model Predictions
| Model | Miami Heat | Houston Rockets | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 42.8% | 57.2% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 52.9% | 47.1% | - | ✗ |
| Margin | 42.6% | 57.4% | +1.6 | ✓ (0.4 off) |
| Pythagorean | 49.6% | 50.4% | - | ✓ |
| Efficiency | 57.4% | 42.6% | - | ✗ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 53.6% | 46.4% | - | ✗ |
| Log Adjusted | 53.6% | 46.4% | - | ✗ |
| Points Off/Def | 46.7% | 53.3% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Houston Rockets +2 (84-82). Predictions use season-end ratings.
Miami Heat
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dwyane Wade * | 42 | 4-19 | 0-2 | 12-18 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 20 | 6 | - |
| Shaquille O'Neal * | 39 | 9-15 | 0-0 | 5-10 | 16 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 23 | 25 | - |
| Eddie Jones * | 38 | 3-6 | 1-4 | 2-2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 9 | 6 | - |
| Damon Jones * | 35 | 6-11 | 3-5 | 1-1 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 16 | 13 | - |
| Michael Doleac * | 24 | 3-5 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 6 | 3 | - |
| Shandon Anderson * | 22 | 1-4 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | - |
| Rasual Butler * | 18 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 2-2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 | - |
| Keyon Dooling * | 14 | 1-6 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | -1 | - |
| Alonzo Mourning * | 8 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 4 | - |
Houston Rockets
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tracy McGrady * | 44 | 8-27 | 2-5 | 8-10 | 6 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 26 | 13 | - |
| David Wesley * | 35 | 4-12 | 1-8 | 5-6 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 14 | 5 | - |
| Bob Sura * | 30 | 0-4 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 4 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 5 | - |
| Dikembe Mutombo * | 25 | 2-3 | 0-0 | 4-6 | 15 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 20 | - |
| Ming Yao * | 25 | 5-11 | 0-0 | 2-2 | 9 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12 | 11 | - |
| Clar. Weatherspoon * | 22 | 4-6 | 0-0 | 4-4 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 12 | 14 | - |
| Mike James * | 19 | 3-8 | 2-4 | 0-4 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 5 | - |
| Jon Barry * | 18 | 2-6 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | -2 | - |
| Ryan Bowen * | 13 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - |
| Scott Padgett * | 9 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - |
* = starter