Model Predictions
| Model | Los Angeles Lakers | Miami Heat | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 5.0% | 95.0% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 17.4% | 82.6% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 11.3% | 88.7% | +11.3 | ✓ (1.7 off) |
| Pythagorean | 35.1% | 64.9% | - | ✓ |
| Efficiency | 15.9% | 84.1% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 19.5% | 80.5% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 19.5% | 80.5% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 26.8% | 73.2% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Miami Heat +13 (102-89). Predictions use season-end ratings.
Los Angeles Lakers
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kobe Bryant * | 46 | 8-23 | 2-6 | 8-9 | 10 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 26 | 18 | - |
| Lamar Odom * | 43 | 4-9 | 0-3 | 3-4 | 11 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 11 | 19 | - |
| Chucky Atkins * | 41 | 9-18 | 5-9 | 0-0 | 3 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 23 | 10 | - |
| Caron Butler * | 36 | 5-14 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 10 | 4 | - |
| Chris Mihm * | 15 | 0-4 | 0-0 | 1-2 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | - |
| Jumaine Jones * | 14 | 0-3 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | -1 | - |
| Brian Cook * | 9 | 3-3 | 3-3 | 1-2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 10 | 10 | - |
| Slava Medvedenko * | 8 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -2 | - |
| Tierre Brown * | 7 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - |
| Brian Grant | 19 | 4-9 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 5 | - |
| Luke Walton | 2 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -2 | - |
Miami Heat
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eddie Jones * | 41 | 5-15 | 1-6 | 1-2 | 6 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12 | 6 | - |
| Dwyane Wade * | 41 | 8-16 | 0-1 | 11-12 | 8 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 27 | 23 | - |
| Udonis Haslem * | 37 | 0-6 | 0-0 | 2-2 | 8 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 6 | - |
| Shaquille O'Neal * | 37 | 11-19 | 0-0 | 3-9 | 12 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 25 | 23 | - |
| Damon Jones * | 28 | 4-9 | 3-7 | 0-0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 11 | 6 | - |
| Keyon Dooling * | 20 | 6-11 | 1-5 | 4-4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 17 | 8 | - |
| Shandon Anderson * | 18 | 2-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 8 | - |
| Christian Laettner * | 11 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 5 | - |
| Michael Doleac * | 7 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | - |
* = starter