Model Predictions
| Model | Miami Heat | Detroit Pistons | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 19.8% | 80.2% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 25.4% | 74.6% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 15.0% | 85.0% | +9.5 | ✓ (1.5 off) |
| Pythagorean | 39.8% | 60.2% | - | ✓ |
| Efficiency | 25.7% | 74.3% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 23.1% | 76.9% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 23.0% | 77.0% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 31.2% | 68.8% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Detroit Pistons +8 (92-84). Predictions use season-end ratings.
Miami Heat
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Caron Butler * | 40 | 4-13 | 0-1 | 5-8 | 9 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 13 | 10 | - |
| Rafer Alston * | 34 | 3-13 | 3-8 | 0-0 | 4 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 6 | - |
| Eddie Jones * | 33 | 6-14 | 4-10 | 0-0 | 3 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 16 | 11 | - |
| Lamar Odom * | 32 | 7-17 | 0-2 | 4-6 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 18 | 8 | - |
| Dwyane Wade * | 30 | 3-6 | 0-1 | 1-2 | 6 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 7 | 10 | - |
| Brian Grant * | 28 | 4-10 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 8 | 6 | - |
| Samaki Walker * | 20 | 2-4 | 0-0 | 2-2 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 11 | - |
| Udonis Haslem * | 15 | 2-3 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 4 | - |
| Rasual Butler | 8 | 1-2 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | - |
Detroit Pistons
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rasheed Wallace * | 39 | 5-14 | 1-3 | 6-6 | 7 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 17 | 15 | - |
| Chauncey Billups * | 39 | 8-17 | 4-7 | 11-12 | 7 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 31 | 27 | - |
| Tayshaun Prince * | 35 | 3-8 | 0-0 | 2-2 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 8 | 6 | - |
| Ben Wallace * | 35 | 3-10 | 0-0 | 0-4 | 8 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 1 | 6 | 11 | - |
| Richard Hamilton * | 22 | 1-5 | 0-0 | 1-1 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 2 | - |
| Corliss Williamson * | 19 | 5-12 | 0-0 | 1-1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11 | 3 | - |
| Lindsey Hunter * | 18 | 0-3 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | - |
| Mike James * | 18 | 2-3 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 5 | 4 | - |
| Mehmet Okur * | 15 | 5-8 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 11 | 9 | - |
* = starter