Model Predictions
| Model | San Antonio Spurs | Toronto Raptors | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 86.3% | 13.7% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 76.6% | 23.4% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 78.3% | 21.7% | -7.1 | ✓ (3.1 off) |
| Pythagorean | 60.8% | 39.2% | - | ✓ |
| Efficiency | 80.3% | 19.7% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 83.8% | 16.2% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 83.8% | 16.2% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 66.8% | 33.2% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Toronto Raptors -4 (82-86). Predictions use season-end ratings.
San Antonio Spurs
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tim Duncan * | 41 | 10-22 | 0-0 | 6-13 | 21 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 26 | 27 | - |
| Bruce Bowen * | 30 | 5-8 | 1-1 | 2-3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13 | 8 | - |
| Hedo Turkoglu * | 27 | 1-6 | 1-3 | 2-2 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 5 | - |
| Manu Ginobili * | 26 | 1-7 | 1-1 | 5-5 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 8 | 9 | - |
| Tony Parker * | 25 | 0-5 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | -3 | - |
| Charlie Ward * | 23 | 4-6 | 2-3 | 2-2 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 12 | 9 | - |
| Rasho Nesterovic * | 19 | 1-6 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 8 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 5 | 2 | 4 | - |
| Malik Rose * | 18 | 4-6 | 0-0 | 3-3 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 11 | 8 | - |
| Robert Horry * | 14 | 1-6 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | - |
| Devin Brown * | 6 | 2-2 | 0-0 | 0-1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 2 | - |
| Ron Mercer | 7 | 1-5 | 0-0 | 1-1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | -1 | - |
| Kevin Willis | 4 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | - |
Toronto Raptors
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Morris Peterson * | 45 | 1-9 | 1-7 | 3-3 | 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 10 | - |
| Alvin Williams * | 42 | 8-16 | 2-3 | 1-2 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 19 | 13 | - |
| Donyell Marshall * | 39 | 8-17 | 1-1 | 1-1 | 11 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 18 | 12 | - |
| Vince Carter * | 30 | 8-20 | 2-5 | 4-6 | 3 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 22 | 10 | - |
| Milt Palacio * | 22 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | - |
| Michael Curry * | 22 | 0-4 | 0-0 | 6-6 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 5 | - |
| Robert Archibald * | 15 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 1-2 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 9 | - |
| Chris Bosh * | 11 | 2-4 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 4 | - |
| Lamond Murray * | 8 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | - |
| Lonny Baxter | 6 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | - |
* = starter