Model Predictions
| Model | Miami Heat | Orlando Magic | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 80.1% | 19.9% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 70.5% | 29.5% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 65.8% | 34.2% | -3.6 | ✓ (9.4 off) |
| Pythagorean | 59.9% | 40.1% | - | ✓ |
| Efficiency | 73.7% | 26.3% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 72.3% | 27.7% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 72.4% | 27.6% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 59.6% | 40.4% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Orlando Magic -13 (98-111). Predictions use season-end ratings.
Miami Heat
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rafer Alston * | 45 | 7-11 | 5-6 | 4-4 | 3 | 5 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 23 | 21 | - |
| Eddie Jones * | 40 | 2-13 | 1-5 | 1-1 | 8 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 4 | - |
| Dwyane Wade * | 40 | 10-16 | 0-0 | 7-9 | 10 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 27 | 21 | - |
| Lamar Odom * | 37 | 6-13 | 0-1 | 6-6 | 9 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 18 | 20 | - |
| Brian Grant * | 35 | 8-13 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 12 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 16 | 18 | - |
| Rasual Butler * | 19 | 5-7 | 2-2 | 0-0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 12 | 7 | - |
| Udonis Haslem * | 18 | 2-2 | 0-0 | 3-6 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 8 | - |
| Malik Allen * | 6 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | - |
Orlando Magic
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tracy McGrady * | 46 | 10-25 | 0-5 | 4-6 | 2 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 24 | 5 | - |
| Juwan Howard * | 41 | 8-16 | 0-0 | 6-6 | 2 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 22 | 12 | - |
| Gordan Giricek * | 34 | 5-10 | 1-3 | 3-3 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 14 | 10 | - |
| Drew Gooden * | 29 | 5-8 | 0-1 | 6-8 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 16 | 18 | - |
| Tyronn Lue * | 26 | 4-5 | 2-2 | 0-0 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 10 | 13 | - |
| Rod Strickland * | 21 | 2-6 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | -1 | - |
| Zaza Pachulia * | 19 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 1-2 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 5 | - |
| Keith Bogans * | 16 | 2-3 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 4 | - |
| Steven Hunter * | 7 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | - |
| Reece Gaines | 1 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | - |
* = starter