Model Predictions
| Model | Miami Heat | Detroit Pistons | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 10.5% | 89.5% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 25.4% | 74.6% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 15.0% | 85.0% | +9.5 | ✓ (4.5 off) |
| Pythagorean | 39.8% | 60.2% | - | ✓ |
| Efficiency | 25.7% | 74.3% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 23.1% | 76.9% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 23.0% | 77.0% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 31.2% | 68.8% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Detroit Pistons +14 (87-73). Predictions use season-end ratings.
Miami Heat
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lamar Odom * | 42 | 11-31 | 0-4 | 0-1 | 14 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 22 | 3 | - |
| Dwyane Wade * | 40 | 6-9 | 0-1 | 3-3 | 7 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 15 | 14 | - |
| Rafer Alston * | 33 | 5-15 | 3-8 | 2-2 | 4 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 15 | 10 | - |
| Eddie Jones * | 33 | 3-17 | 1-9 | 2-4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 9 | -4 | - |
| Brian Grant * | 31 | 2-9 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 3 | - |
| Udonis Haslem * | 23 | 0-3 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | - |
| Loren Woods * | 21 | 3-4 | 0-0 | 0-2 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 11 | - |
| Samaki Walker | 11 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | - |
| John Wallace | 2 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | - |
Detroit Pistons
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ben Wallace * | 43 | 4-12 | 0-0 | 2-4 | 21 | 3 | 0 | 6 | 3 | 10 | 25 | - |
| Chauncey Billups * | 38 | 4-12 | 1-2 | 7-7 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 16 | 8 | - |
| Richard Hamilton * | 36 | 6-16 | 0-0 | 6-7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 18 | 6 | - |
| Tayshaun Prince * | 36 | 4-10 | 0-2 | 5-5 | 11 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 13 | 19 | - |
| Mehmet Okur * | 28 | 5-11 | 0-0 | 7-8 | 12 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 17 | 22 | - |
| Corliss Williamson * | 24 | 4-12 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 0 | - |
| Bob Sura * | 15 | 1-4 | 0-1 | 1-2 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | - |
| Tremaine Fowlkes * | 13 | 1-3 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 5 | - |
| Hubert Davis | 3 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | - |
| Darvin Ham | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - |
* = starter