Model Predictions
| Model | Miami Heat | Toronto Raptors | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 56.7% | 43.3% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 35.6% | 64.4% | - | ✗ |
| Margin | 25.5% | 74.5% | +5.9 | ✗ (9.9 off) |
| Pythagorean | 43.8% | 56.2% | - | ✗ |
Actual: Toronto Raptors -4 (99-103). Predictions use season-end ratings.
Miami Heat
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rasual Butler * | 41 | 7-15 | 1-2 | 4-4 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 19 | 9 | - |
| Ken Johnson * | 33 | 4-9 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 10 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 10 | - |
| Sean Lampley * | 26 | 1-5 | 0-0 | 5-8 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 7 | - |
| LaPhonso Ellis * | 26 | 5-13 | 1-4 | 2-2 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 13 | 7 | - |
| Malik Allen * | 24 | 5-9 | 0-0 | 1-1 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11 | 8 | - |
| Mike James * | 24 | 5-8 | 3-5 | 2-2 | 6 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 15 | 19 | - |
| Caron Butler * | 22 | 3-9 | 0-2 | 1-1 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 7 | 4 | - |
| Travis Best * | 12 | 3-3 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 4 | - |
| Anthony Carter * | 7 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -1 | - |
| Brian Grant * | 6 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | - |
| Vladimir Stepania * | 5 | 3-5 | 0-0 | 2-2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 6 | - |
| Eddie House | 9 | 3-5 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 5 | - |
Toronto Raptors
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rafer Alston * | 46 | 7-16 | 3-6 | 2-4 | 8 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 19 | 16 | - |
| Morris Peterson * | 45 | 10-21 | 5-10 | 8-9 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 33 | 15 | - |
| Jerome Williams * | 44 | 4-14 | 0-0 | 2-5 | 17 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 10 | 12 | - |
| Chris Jefferies * | 37 | 4-13 | 0-3 | 3-4 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 11 | 1 | - |
| Mamadou N'diaye * | 30 | 4-7 | 0-0 | 3-4 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 11 | 16 | - |
| Michael Bradley * | 22 | 4-10 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 9 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 8 | 10 | - |
| Jelani McCoy * | 13 | 2-6 | 0-0 | 3-4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 5 | - |
* = starter