Model Predictions
| Model | Miami Heat | Houston Rockets | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 10.5% | 89.5% | +9.8 | ✗ (21.8 off) |
| Bradley-Terry | 20.3% | 79.7% | - | ✗ |
| Margin | 12.0% | 88.0% | +10.9 | ✗ (22.9 off) |
| Pythagorean | 35.4% | 64.6% | - | ✗ |
| Efficiency | 12.7% | 87.3% | - | ✗ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 20.4% | 79.6% | - | ✗ |
| Log Adjusted | 20.4% | 79.6% | - | ✗ |
| Points Off/Def | 28.7% | 71.3% | - | ✗ |
Actual: Houston Rockets -12 (82-94). Ratings: 2002-03 season-end ratings.
Miami Heat
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brian Grant * | 39 | 2-7 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 9 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 9 | - |
| Caron Butler * | 38 | 8-15 | 0-0 | 8-9 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 24 | 11 | - |
| Malik Allen * | 33 | 7-11 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14 | 8 | - |
| Travis Best * | 27 | 3-8 | 0-0 | 9-10 | 3 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 15 | 15 | - |
| Eddie House * | 24 | 5-8 | 1-1 | 1-2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 12 | 7 | - |
| Rasual Butler | 26 | 2-6 | 0-1 | 1-4 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 5 | - |
| Mike James | 20 | 5-8 | 2-3 | 3-4 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15 | 12 | - |
| Vladimir Stepania | 19 | 2-3 | 0-0 | 1-1 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 11 | - |
| LaPhonso Ellis | 10 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - |
Houston Rockets
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cuttino Mobley * | 42 | 3-10 | 1-6 | 3-6 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 10 | 7 | - |
| Steve Francis * | 40 | 6-18 | 1-6 | 14-18 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 27 | 16 | - |
| Eddie Griffin * | 34 | 6-13 | 1-4 | 1-2 | 12 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 14 | 14 | - |
| Ming Yao * | 31 | 4-8 | 0-0 | 2-2 | 8 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10 | 13 | - |
| James Posey * | 28 | 2-10 | 0-3 | 2-4 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 6 | 0 | - |
| Terence Morris | 18 | 1-3 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 4 | - |
| Kelvin Cato | 16 | 2-5 | 0-0 | 1-2 | 8 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 10 | - |
| Maurice Taylor | 13 | 2-10 | 0-0 | 2-2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 6 | -3 | - |
| Moochie Norris | 9 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1-2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | - |
| Juaquin Hawkins | 4 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 0-2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | - |
* = starter