Model Predictions
| Model | Indiana Pacers | Miami Heat | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 60.4% | 39.6% | -0.8 | ✓ (3.2 off) |
| Bradley-Terry | 69.9% | 30.1% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 65.1% | 34.9% | -3.4 | ✓ (0.6 off) |
| Pythagorean | 60.2% | 39.8% | - | ✓ |
| Efficiency | 84.5% | 15.5% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 74.7% | 25.3% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 74.7% | 25.3% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 59.5% | 40.5% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Miami Heat -4 (79-83). Ratings: 2002-03 season-end ratings.
Indiana Pacers
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jermaine O'Neal * | 41 | 8-16 | 0-0 | 6-7 | 13 | 3 | 0 | 5 | 4 | 22 | 23 | - |
| Brad Miller * | 40 | 6-8 | 0-0 | 16-18 | 8 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 28 | 30 | - |
| Jamaal Tinsley * | 38 | 1-9 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 3 | 6 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 4 | - |
| Metta World Peace * | 32 | 4-11 | 0-0 | 1-1 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 9 | 6 | - |
| Al Harrington * | 28 | 3-9 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 3 | - |
| Ron Mercer | 28 | 5-8 | 0-0 | 2-4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 12 | 6 | - |
| Jonathan Bender | 17 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 2-2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 2 | - |
| Jeff Foster | 9 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | - |
| Erick Strickland | 4 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | - |
Miami Heat
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Caron Butler * | 38 | 6-14 | 1-2 | 1-2 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 14 | 2 | - |
| Brian Grant * | 36 | 1-9 | 0-0 | 3-6 | 18 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 16 | - |
| Eddie Jones * | 35 | 7-16 | 3-6 | 0-0 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 17 | 5 | - |
| Travis Best * | 32 | 6-12 | 1-1 | 3-4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 16 | 5 | - |
| Malik Allen * | 19 | 0-5 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - |
| Rasual Butler | 22 | 4-12 | 0-3 | 0-0 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 3 | - |
| Vladimir Stepania | 20 | 5-9 | 0-0 | 1-1 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 11 | 9 | - |
| Sean Marks | 19 | 1-5 | 0-0 | 2-2 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 3 | - |
| Mike James | 16 | 0-5 | 0-2 | 4-4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | - |
* = starter