Model Predictions
| Model | Miami Heat | San Antonio Spurs | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 13.5% | 86.5% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 9.9% | 90.1% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 5.4% | 94.6% | +15.8 | ✓ (5.8 off) |
| Pythagorean | 29.7% | 70.3% | - | ✓ |
Actual: San Antonio Spurs +10 (89-79). Predictions use season-end ratings.
Miami Heat
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jim Jackson * | 35 | 6-10 | 1-2 | 4-4 | 7 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 17 | 18 | - |
| Alonzo Mourning * | 31 | 6-13 | 0-0 | 4-5 | 11 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 16 | 14 | - |
| Eddie Jones * | 30 | 2-8 | 0-5 | 4-4 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 8 | 4 | - |
| Rod Strickland * | 26 | 2-6 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 4 | - |
| Eddie House * | 26 | 5-11 | 1-3 | 2-2 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 13 | 4 | - |
| Vladimir Stepania * | 24 | 3-8 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 6 | 7 | - |
| Brian Grant * | 21 | 4-7 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 5 | - |
| Chris Gatling * | 17 | 2-6 | 0-0 | 1-2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 0 | - |
| Anthony Carter * | 13 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | - |
| Kendall Gill * | 11 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -1 | - |
San Antonio Spurs
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tim Duncan * | 42 | 9-14 | 0-0 | 5-7 | 11 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 23 | 22 | - |
| Tony Parker * | 39 | 6-12 | 0-1 | 2-6 | 2 | 8 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 14 | 12 | - |
| Bruce Bowen * | 34 | 3-9 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 7 | 0 | - |
| Antonio Daniels * | 31 | 2-8 | 0-4 | 6-6 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10 | 4 | - |
| David Robinson * | 29 | 3-8 | 0-0 | 5-6 | 10 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11 | 15 | - |
| Charles Smith * | 21 | 5-8 | 0-0 | 2-2 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 12 | 5 | - |
| Malik Rose * | 19 | 3-9 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 5 | - |
| Danny Ferry * | 17 | 2-4 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 4 | - |
| Mark Bryant | 3 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | - |
| Cherokee Parks | 1 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | - |
| Terry Porter | 0 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | - |
* = starter